How Apple's new iPhone is selling so far by deciphering delivery times

Published Mon, Sep 12 20221:03 PM EDTUpdated Mon, Sep 12 20223:01 PM EDT

Expect to stand by a little longer than last year to get your hands on some of Apple 's latest gadgets. Delivery wait times for the tech giant's iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max have already surpassed the waiting period for 2021′s 13 Pro models. That could be a good sign for the iPhone maker, indicating that demand remains resilient for higher-end products despite a backdrop of sticky inflation and slowing consumer spending, according to data deciphered by analysts. "In summary, iPhone demand indications are strong following the launch, and while similar to last year the mix continues to be more favorable towards Pro models, lead times for the two Pro models are already more extended relative to last year," wrote JPMorgan Chase's Samik Chatterjee in a note to clients Sunday. To be sure, wait times for the iPhone 14 are slightly lower than they were last year, but delays for the 14 Pro and Pro Max have already pushed into mid-October and continue to grow. In the United States, buyers should expect a five- to seven-week delay, compared to three to five weeks for the iPhone 13 Pro and Max last year, according to Baird. JPMorgan Chase pegs the delays at 35 and 42 days for the 14 Pro and Pro Max, respectively. JPMorgan also says the market in China is perhaps the strongest indicator of resilient demand in a slowing macro environment, with lead times stretching 50 to 57 days. Globally, buyers can expect to wait 30 and 39 days on average for the 14 Pro and Pro Max, respectively, up from 26 and 27 days, Bank of America says. "We attribute the difference to stronger demand rather than supply," wrote Credit Suisse analyst Shannon Cross, citing smaller supply chain revenue impacts over last year and a push toward installment plans driving customers to a two-year upgrade cycle. According to data compiled by Credit Suisse, 94 of the 160 Pro and Pro Max SKUs were delayed by at least 10 days within 30 minutes of Apple's preorder launch. That's compared to 70 of 160 delayed by at least 12 days in 2021. Not only does data show high demand for the iPhone Pro but also for the Apple Watch Ultra, JPMorgan Chase says. "While there's no perfect read on potential supply differences year-over-year, we view the early indicators as solid overall, particularly given the consumer spending macro uncertainties," said Baird's William Power. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed reporting

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