FedEx's fiasco sends another sell signal. But some stocks won't be hit as hard

Published Thu, Sep 15 20228:13 PM EDT

Let's just say I wanted to be more positive — but there was, alas, nothing to be positive about really. I am talking about my interview Thursday evening with Raj Subramaniam, the new CEO of FedEx (FDX), who literally gave me no reason whatsoever to have any hope about avoiding a worldwide recession. In fact, I asked Raj if that was going to happen and he said: "I think so." First, let me say it took a lot of guts for him to come on after the company reported a terrible quarter, withdrew forward guidance and announced cost-cutting measures. That's a positive, I guess. Second, the stock was plunging so fast — down more than 16% in after hours — that it might settle-in in a couple of days. As I said at the top of "Mad Money," most of our problems are manmade. If China were to use Moderna 's (MRNA) vaccine and if Russian President Vladimir Putin would simply realize he can't win in Ukraine, then we won't care one whit what Raj had to say. But I have been saying those positives could occur for months now, and they simply may not be relied upon as the people who run these two countries — China and Russia — are responsive to no one but themselves. What jarred me so much Thursday evening was that I have such respect for FedEx that I kept thinking the CEO would say something positive. Twice, I asked him just to tell me something good and he had nothing good to say. Things had gotten worse pretty much week after week since the end of the June analyst meeting, shocking in itself. He did say he would continue the company's buyback, but I actually am not so sure that's a good idea because the holiday season is coming up and he needs to keep a competitive edge. But what will be most worrisome for people is the notion of the U.S. clearly now headed downhill. You literally have to hope that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell watched my interview, the only one Raj gave, because I can see that we can easily now import from China and Europe some pretty negative scenarios. The market, I think, on Friday will be down hard off this one company's negativity because it touches every tentacle. I am sure people will sell Club holding Amazon (AMZN), for example, even as Amazon doesn't even do business with FedEx. Everything tech will be obliterated AGAIN because of China. The one thing I will stick behind though is what I said at Thursday's "Monthly Meeting" for Club members. With our portfolio, with the exception of a handful of tech stocks, we are not set up for an economic boom, we are headed for an economic slowdown. When we are down Friday, I will scrutinize all of the stocks we talked about — but pay close attention to the ones that have little economic sensitivity. Those are the ones that will bottom first. Short of a statement from Carole Tome, CEO of United Parcel Service (UPS), saying that Raj is on planet Mars and she's taking all of his business, the stocks that have to do with an acceleration of commerce betting on the end of tightening can't bottom unless — or until — the Fed says that we have to wait and see now after this hike at next week's September meeting. The debate is over 100 basis points or 75 basis points. Otherwise, they are going lower, not a lot lower but definitely lower still. (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long AMZN. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

A Federal Express truck makes its way down a freeway in San Diego, California.

Mike Blake | Reuters