Morgan Stanley says buy these dividend stocks to optimize returns in turbulent times

Published Mon, Sep 19 20221:49 PM EDT

Morgan Stanley sees earnings headwinds building and has some dividend stocks for investors to optimizing returns despite the volatility. Earnings forecasts for this year and next remain "too high," especially as tighter central bank policy has a delayed impact on the economy, according to Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson in a Monday note. Markets were choppy to start the week ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting where policy makers are expected to raise interest rates by another 75 basis points. "While we think there is still a long way to go before reality is fairly priced, investors may face a volatile path in the absence of an 'event' to clear the deck," Wilson wrote. The strategist said the S & P 500 "remains overvalued" given rising growth risks. Wilson sees the S & P 500 bottoming around 3,400 in his base case scenario. His bear case, however, ahs the S & P 500 plunging toward 3,000 before coming back in the first half of 2023. "Bottom line: we expect a downward and volatile primary price trend over the coming 3 months," Wilson wrote. Still, the strategist thinks investors can find returns in some dividend stocks that perform well in a late-cycle environment. Last week, Morgan Stanley's analysts disclosed a list of top stocks that combined yield, growth and stability . Morgan Stanley highlighted some top systematic dividend picks to own based on total expected return, upside to the price target, projected dividend yields for 2023 and one-year volatility. Here are five picks from the bank. Eastman Chemical made the list with the highest total expected return of 77%, as of Sept. 15. The chemical industry company has a price target of $165 per share, and it's expected to have a dividend yield of 3% next year. Electric utility stock FirstEnergy is a top pick with a total expected return of 36%. Morgan Stanley has a price target of $53 on the stock and sees a dividend yield of 4% for 2023. Pharmaceutical company AbbVie is a dividend stock pick with a 42% total expected return, a $188 price target, and an expected yield of 4%. Plains All American Pipeline LP and LyondellBasell Industries N.V. also made the list.

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