The S&P 500 falls to a fresh low for the year. Here's where stocks may go next

Published Tue, Sep 27 20222:06 PM EDTUpdated Tue, Sep 27 20228:45 PM EDT

Patti Domm @in/patti-domm-9224884/@pattidomm

The S & P 500 broke below its June low, and Wall Street is debating whether the sell-off is nearing an end or is more pain in store for investors. The S & P 500 briefly fell to 3,623 Tuesday, a new bear market low, below its June intraday low of 3,636. The market continued to test that level in afternoon trading. The broad market index closed at 3,647 Tuesday, down 0.2%. "It's definitely in testing mode right now," said Todd Sohn, Strategas technical analyst. "We're still in very vulnerable shape. It's rates. It's the dollar. The important thing is none of the macro pressures have gone away or resolved themselves. Bonds are totally broken, and the FX market has gone wild." Stocks were mixed in afternoon trading as Treasury yields rose sharply on the day. The benchmark 1 0-year note yield was at 3.96% Tuesday, edging toward the key 4% level. The dollar index was flattish at 114.14, as the euro continued to slide. The euro was at $0.9595 to the dollar. "I think 3,500 is in play because it's the midway point for the rally from March 2020 to the high, which was Jan. 4 this year. That lines up with levels near the pre-Covid crash high," said Sohn. However, Fundstrat's Mark Newton said he sees signs that this sell-off could be nearing an end, and he does not see significance in the break below the June low. "It doesn't mean we have another 10%, 15% down by any stretch," he said. "A lot of my work focuses on the market bottoming by the first week of October." Newton said he sees signs that yields and the dollar could peak in October. "That should be the catalyst that causes stocks to rally," he said. Newton said he expects October through December to be bullish for stocks. "When sentiment is as negative as it is heading into the so-called 'bear killer' month, you usually get a nice reprieve. I'm not banking on this decline continuing," he said. Newton pointed to conditions that are similar to when the market hit bottom in mid June. He said the percentage of stocks above their 20-day, 50-day and 200-day moving averages are in the single digits. For instance, just 2.98% of the constituents in the S & P 500 were above their 50-day moving average. That number was 1.98% on June 17. The 50-day is simply the average closing price over the past 50 sessions. A stock that can close above it could show positive momentum. Meanwhile, Sohn noted that a few developments will need to take place before stocks can move forward. "Until the dollar comes off the boil and there's some stabilizing in rates, I think it's hard for risk assets to do anything," he said.