Bank of America downgrades Apple, says weak consumer will cause stock's outperformance to end

Published Thu, Sep 29 20226:30 AM EDTUpdated Thu, Sep 29 20227:01 AM EDT

Apple got a rare downgrade Thursday, with Bank of America lowering its rating on the tech giant to neutral from buy, citing incremental risks to the company's earnings going forward. The bank also slashed its price target on the stock to $160 per share, implying upside of about 7%. Bank of America's old target of $185 pointed to a more than 23% gain. Apple shares slipped nearly 3% in premarket trading following the note. "Shares have outperformed significantly YTD ... and have been perceived as a relative safe haven," Wamsi Mohan wrote in a Thursday note. "However, we see risk to this outperformance over the next year, as we expect material negative est. revisions driven by weaker consumer demand." Apple is down 15.6% year to date, outperforming the S & P 500 in that time, which has fallen nearly 22%. The stock has also been on fire in the third quarter, popping more than 9%. The firm also cut its estimates for fiscal 2023 full-year earnings per share, now forecasting EPS of $5.87 down from its previous estimate of EPS of $6.24. Bank of America sees many short-term risks to Apple given a weaker macroeconomic outlook. The bank sees the potential for a weaker iPhone 14 cycle as consumer spending takes a hit, especially in Europe, and points to moderating lead time data for Pro models. The firm worries that a stronger mix of Pro models won't offset a decline in revenue and profit if overall units decline. There may also be a weaker near-term trajectory for services, stock performance correlated to gross profit dollars likely to decline in the coming years, a reversion to pre-Covid levels for iPads and partially for Macs as well as currency headwinds from a stronger dollar. "Other risks are potential trade conflicts, tariffs, longer iPhone replacement cycles, commoditization in the smartphone market, intensifying competition in the tablet market, ability to manage beat and raise expectations for EPS estimates, and requirement to maintain pace of product innovation," Mohan wrote. Apple now has just four hold ratings and one sell rating on Wall Street, compared to 23 analysts that call the stock a buy, according to Tipranks.com . —CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.