Reactions to earnings reports tell investors a lot of bad news is already priced into the market

Published Tue, Oct 25 20229:11 AM EDT

Several companies have reported earnings below expectations or are providing weak guidance. 3M Co. ( MMM ) beat on its topline, but cut its full-year revenue and profit forecast largely due to inflation and a strong dollar. JetBlue reported earnings lower than expected, but sales were in-line. General Electric was trading up premarket Tuesday, even though earnings were short of forecasts and it cut its full year outlook. Corning was in-line but provided weak guidance. Xerox missed as well. On the positive side, Coca-Cola had a strong report, UPS beat on earnings (but was a bit light on revenues), while General Motors , Halliburton and Archer-Daniels-Midland were all good. And yet, if you look at the way the stocks with misses or disappointing guidance are trading, they are hardly reflecting a selloff. Corning was down 5% pre-market Tuesday due to poor guidance. MMM was down 3%. But that was the worst of it. What's it mean? It means a lot of bad news is already priced into the market. "The estimate cuts have not arrived...yet the index has discounted a lot of bad news," Katy Huberty, Morgan Stanley director of equity research for the Americas said in a note to clients, noting that many are expecting forward earnings for the S & P 500 to drop to $200 for the next 12 months, versus consensus expectations of $234. That's a pretty pessimistic outlook. Still, conditions can change fast. If you want an example of how fast conditions are changing, look at Pulte. The homebuilder posted earnings and revenues below expectations, yet the numbers were still strong: revenues up 13%, earnings up 44%. Operating margins were higher on higher prices. But this is all from contracts signed months ago. Pulte's forward guidance is far more cautious: "In response to today's more challenging market conditions, we continue to adjust our sales, construction and investment practices as we work to turn inventory and balance our housing starts to appropriately match the pace of sales," the company said in a press release.