Analysts are still bullish on Microsoft's long-term prospects but see more near-term headwinds

Published Wed, Oct 26 20226:30 AM EDT

Even though Microsoft reported fiscal first-quarter earnings Tuesday that beat on the top and bottom lines, a weaker-than-expected forward guidance sent shares lower . Microsoft slid about 6% in premarket trading Wednesday after the company said it sees fiscal second quarter revenue coming in between $52.35 billion and $53.35 billion, implying growth of just 2% at the middle of that range. Still, most analysts covering Microsoft remained bullish on the company in the long-term. While a number of firms covering the tech company lowered their 12-month price targets, buy ratings for the tech giant remained intact. "While we revise down our FY23 estimates (to reflect headwinds in MPC revenue, Azure), we note that a majority of this stepdown pertains to cyclical parts of the business that do not cater to the strategic vision of the company and our long-term thesis," wrote Goldman Sachs analyst Kash Rangan in a Tuesday note. "Management's guide for 5 points of sequential deceleration within Azure and a broader step down in revenue/OM expectations, all but confirm our view that companies are likely to guide more conservatively as they look at CY23," Rangan said. "This will allow for better outperformances in future quarters and are a good step in rebuilding investor confidence." The firm reiterated its buy rating but cut its price target to $315 from $330 to reflect slower growth ahead. "Looking beyond near-term dynamics, we remain constructive as we see the company well positioned to continue to win deals and expand its wallet share within its existing customer-base, even in a slower growth environment," said Rangan. Long-term story 'firmly intact' Even though the slowdown in growth is a red flag for analysts, most think they represent a short-term headwind for the company and expect earnings to normalize with the global economy. "Although both the deceleration in consumption trends (particularly within the SMB segment) and headwinds to the seat-based EMS business will likely continue to weigh on near-term growth, we view the negative impact of the currently elevated optimization cycle as more temporary," wrote Credit Suisse analyst Phil Winslow in a Wednesday note. "Similar to past optimization cycles that weighed on growth for ~1-2 quarters, an upswing in new workloads then followed that drove growth back toward more normalized trends." The firm lowered its revenue and earnings estimates for the next year but maintained an outperform rating and price target of $365. Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss agreed, saying that while the cyclical impact was larger than anticipated, the long-term story remains "firmly intact," as evidenced by management's conviction in 20% growth for the year in its commercial sector. The bank lowered its price target to $307 from $325 to reflect slower earnings next year but maintained its overweight rating on the company. Short-term pressure Still, several analysts see turbulence for the stock in the near term. Barclays analyst Raimo Lenschow said headwinds from a weaker PC market and macro pressures "will weigh on the MSFT story ... but also on sentiment for all of software." Lenschow maintained his overweight rating but lowered his price target to $296 per share from $310. Citi analyst Tyler Radke said he expects the stock to "down slightly as stronger O365/PBP is offset by a second consecutive Azure miss and some new headwinds on the cost side (higher energy costs)." The bank has a buy rating on Microsoft and a price target of $282 per share. Meanwhile, Piper Sandler's Brent Bracelin noted that while he was encouraged by the company's "reiteration that Microsoft Cloud growth should remain above 20% on a constant currency basis this year ... Azure growth (ex-FX) is expected to moderate to 37% y/y from 42% this quarter and 46% last quarter, elevating near-term concerns on competitive pricing and workload optimization efforts that could curb consumption patterns heading into a recession." — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed reporting.