This retailer has a far-reaching view of the industry. Its profit warning doesn't bode well for the holiday season

Published Mon, Dec 5 20229:38 AM ESTUpdated Mon, Dec 5 202212:26 PM EST

Are apparel retailers too optimistic about their earnings outlooks? If so, VF Corp. 's profit warning could be a sign of things to come. The parent of brands such as The North Face, Vans and Timberland said Monday its full-year results will miss the mark it set only a few weeks ago when it posted its fiscal second-quarter results . Rewinding to that earnings report at the end of October, the apparel maker's outlook wasn't exactly rosy. It reiterated its revenue forecast but slashed earnings outlook, citing expectations of a more promotional environment. On Monday, VF said there's a "more elevated than expected promotional environment" as it lowered its EPS guidance once again and said its CEO is stepping down . Shares fell nearly 7% in trading on the news. The company's stock is now down nearly 55% year to date. The new forecast calls for earnings of $2.00 to $2.20 per share, after adjustments, compared with an estimate of $2.40 per share from Refinitiv. That's down from $2.40 to $2.50 per share a few weeks ago and far lower than the range of $2.60 to $2.70 prior to the October earnings report. All told, it's a 21% reduction in a matter of weeks. In the year-ago quarter, VF earned $3.18 per share. What's more, the latest revision isn't just about the promotional environment, and that's why it may be something for investors to watch. This time, VF also cut its sales forecast. It expects revenue to rise between 3% and 4% in constant dollars, down from a prior estimate of 5% to 6% growth, on the same basis. Since VF has a dozen brands, direct-to-consumer websites, its own brick-and-mortar stores and partnerships with numerous retailers, it has a good view of the retail landscape. From that vantage point, it said a variety of factors are hurting volume. It explained that broad-based demand in North America, its largest market, is weaker than expected and there are more wholesale cancellations. And "to a lesser degree," there is less demand in Europe and there are Covid-19 disruptions in China, it said. Sounds like a perfect storm, doesn't it? Later Monday, Credit Suisse analyst Michael Binetti downgraded VF to neutral from outperform, citing the uncertain outlook for his souring opinion on the stock.