JPMorgan thinks emerging markets will be the star next year, returning 14%. How to play it

Published Thu, Dec 8 20221:05 PM ESTUpdated Thu, Dec 8 20222:14 PM EST

Jesse Pound @/in/jesse-pound @jesserpound

Emerging markets could be a big winner for investors next year, even though a global economic slowdown seems likely, according to JPMorgan. Chief global markets strategist Marko Kolanovic said in a note to clients on Thursday that emerging markets could rally next year even as major economies slow, with markets looking ahead to the next economic rebound. "We forecast EM equities to return 14% next year (MSCI EM 1,060), driven primarily by 2024 earnings growth or convergence of valuation to the historical discount to DM equities," the note said. One of the areas that Kolanovic is most bullish on for next year is China, given the potential for economic growth as officials roll back Covid restrictions. That bullishness comes despite long-term concerns around the country related to its regulatory environment and tensions with other world powers. "Client feedback on China continues to be cautious for the long run given uncertainty in calculating equity risk premium due to regulatory and geopolitical tensions. We tactically OW China on valuation, growth acceleration and positioning," the note said. There are several large exchange-traded funds that U.S. investors can use to gain exposure to China. The iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) is the biggest, at roughly $8 billion of assets under management. The expense ratio is 0.57%. The Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR) provides broad exposure to stocks traded in China at a slightly higher fee than the iShares fund, with an expense ratio of 0.65%. Meanwhile, the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) gives a more tech-centric portfolio and has an expense ratio of 0.69%. Kolanovic is also bullish on the markets of oil-exporting countries, including Brazil. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) has already outperformed the U.S. market this year, rising more than 13% on a total return basis. The fund has an expense ratio of 0.57%. However, there is some evidence that there is still more room to run for the fund. Bespoke Investment Group said Thursday that Brazil's ETF is one of the few major country ETFs that is trading below its 50-day moving average. Another area of emerging markets that could rally next year is technology, due in part to the "expected peaking of US rates and forecasted bottom in tech sub-sectors especially memory," JPMorgan said. Kolanovic said that South Korea could be a good way to gain exposure to technology, as well as the solar and auto industries. The iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) , also with an expense ratio of 0.57%, has lost more than 26% this year on a total return basis. There are also ETFs on the U.S. market that offer broad exposure to emerging economies, but Kolanovic is not bullish across the board. JPMorgan is underweight India and neutral on Chile. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.