Oppenheimer sees the S&P 500 rallying nearly 12% in 2023 as corporate earnings hold up

Published Mon, Dec 12 202211:56 AM ESTUpdated Mon, Dec 12 202212:48 PM EST

Jesse Pound @/in/jesse-pound @jesserpound

Wall Street will enjoy a solid rebound in 2023 if the Federal Reserve can get inflation under control without going too far with interest rate hikes, according to Oppenheimer Asset Management. Chief investment strategist John Stoltzfus released the firm's outlook for 2023. Oppenheimer set a price target of 4,400 for the S & P 500 , which is 11.8% above where the index closed Friday. Stoltzfus said in a note to clients Monday that the Fed, while not close to a pivot, will be slowing its rate hikes from here, providing some optimism for markets and the economy. "A key factor in achieving success this cycle will be the Fed's terminal rate (the rate at which it stops raising rates and economic conditions when it takes such action). The better the improvement in the inflation rate when the Fed either takes pause or pivots the less likely a hard landing," Stoltzfus said. Oppenheimer is on the high side of Wall Street's targets for next year. The average target for the end of 2023 among major investment firms is 4,140, according to the CNBC strategist survey. Several see the broad market index ending the year below 4,000. One area where Oppenheimer is more optimistic than others is earnings estimates. While many Wall Street strategists believe that estimates for corporate profits are still too high ahead of a potential recession, Stoltzfus said they may already be close to correct. Oppenheimer predicts earnings will be flat next year. "In our view right-sizing expectations will continue to help investors navigate the Fed's rate hikes that lie ahead in light of economic data which could offer periods of disappointment as the markets track the Fed's progress in curbing this cycle's high inflation rates," Stoltzfus said. In fact, the pessimism about earnings from other major strategists and investors could help the stock market rally next year, according to Oppenheimer. "Bearish sentiment remains widespread among market participants stateside not withstanding signs of resilience in the economy which could likely reduce the likelihood of a stateside recession or at least reduce the depth and length of a recession should a recession be realized," the note said. Stoltzfus did list several downside risks to Oppenheimer's target, including a more aggressive Fed and a potential resurgence in global commodity prices. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.