Morgan Stanley is bullish on this Big Tech stock it says could rally by 64%

Published Thu, Dec 15 20228:20 PM ESTUpdated Sun, Dec 18 20229:10 PM EST

Investors this year have mostly shied away from growth stocks in favor of safer bets given aggressive interest rate hikes and other headwinds. Even Apple — long considered a safe haven of sorts for its solid balance sheet, diversified income streams and premium branding — hasn't emerged from this year's sell-off unscathed. But the tech giant has held up relatively well compared to its peers. The stock has lost about 22% of its market value this year, beating the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite , which has declined about 30% in the same period. Some investors may be concerned about the bad news surrounding Apple — with issues ranging from iPhone production shortfalls in China to employee strikes in Australia — but Morgan Stanley is unperturbed, choosing instead to take a longer-term view on the company. The bank has given it a base case price target of $175 and a bull case price target of $235, which implies potential upside of around 22% and 64%, respectively. A longer-term view "While most investors are focused on near-term supply disruption, we believe this overlooks the strength and health of Apple's ecosystem, where we remain bullish," Morgan Stanley's analysts, led by Erik Woodring, wrote in a note on Dec. 8. "We believe any stock dislocation on the back of supply-related disruptions presents an opportunity to own one of the highest quality tech platforms featuring a first-rate management team and consistent execution that is trading in-line with its trailing 5-year average [price-to-earnings ratio]," he added. Though Apple is currently trading at a 20% premium to the S & P 500 , Morgan Stanley said an analysis that relies purely on price-to-earnings ratios "underappreciates the durability of Apple's ecosystem." The bank noted that Apple's increasingly "subscription-like, recurring model," given the loyalty and lower churn of its 1.1 billion installed users, should allay investor fears of moderating consumer demand. Morgan Stanley also expects Apple's services business to return to double-digit year-on-year growth, after having missed analyst estimates for the fourth quarter ended September . "We believe Apple still has room to grow in its core business," Morgan Stanley said. It added that the company isn't wholly dependent on the next iPhone category for growth, which it can also achieve with existing products and by increasing its penetration in emerging markets such as India, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, and Vietnam. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to reporting