Tesla or Rivian? The pros predict what 2023 will look like for the two stocks

Published Wed, Dec 28 20227:21 PM ESTUpdated Wed, Dec 28 20229:19 PM EST

It's been a tumultuous year for electric vehicle stocks, and two investor favorites, Tesla and Rivian , have been no exception. Tesla's stock is down around 72% for the year — plummeting 42% in December so far. Its prospects have been sidetracked by the chaos at Twitter, to which Elon Musk — the CEO of both companies — has redirected some of the automaker's resources . Rivian, for its part, struggled with supply chain issues that made it cut its guidance by half earlier this year. It recently reiterated that it can meet its 2022 production target of 25,000 vehicles in 2022, but as of the third quarter, the number stood at just 14,317. Its shares are down about 82% for the year. But what will the year ahead look like for both stocks? CNBC Pro spoke to analysts and trawled through Wall Street research to find out. Tesla George Gianarikas, senior analyst at Canaccord Genuity, told CNBC in September that Tesla is the "clear leader" in the EV sector, and gave it a price target of $801, or 190% upside. More recently, in early December, he told CNBC Pro that his price target for Tesla is $304. Gianarikas said Tesla's full self-driving beta release should be a tailwind for the firm's revenue and gross margin in 2023. However, he said, "While we are not Twitter analysts, Tesla's stock performance has now, unfortunately, become loosely tied to news about Twitter's economic prospects. For now, we view this as short-term noise and, over the medium to long term, see Tesla's stock tied to Tesla's earnings." According to a recent report from Evercore, however, Tesla is not yet facing any serious competition, with its U.S. market share at more than 70%. At some point, however, a "slew of new, lower-priced and compelling entrants threatens to erode market share below 50% threshold," Evercore analysts said. "With this said: our report is not a "New EVs vs TSLA" Call – Tesla will continue to dominate the US market share through 2025 or 2026," they wrote. Evercore gave Tesla a price target of $350 for 2023, or upside of 220%. Louis Navellier, chief investment officer of asset manager Navellier & Associates, is less optimistic, giving Tesla a one-year price target of $150, or just 37% upside. He told CNBC Pro that as EVs are still considered "luxury vehicles" in light of the high prices of battery components, EV makers will find it hard to achieve profitability. Rivian Gianarikas also recently lowered Rivian's price target from $61 to $55. "Rivian continues to improve operations, ramp production and enhance product quality," he said. "While supply chain issues continue to hamper the slope of production improvements, demand remains strong despite a worsening macroeconomic environment." Evercore gave Rivian a price target of $35 for 2023, or 97% upside — lower than its 220% for Tesla. "What holds us back from a more optimistic outlook on Rivian? Despite management noting the company has cash to cover the launch of the R2 platform, we see Rivian requiring ~$4- 6 [billion] in funding through '26, while burning $7-9 [billion] '23 through '26," it said, referring to its upcoming EV architecture platform. Navellier told CNBC Pro that Rivian is a stock to avoid, saying he doesn't expect the firm to achieve profitability. "I worry that Rivian will not be able to reach economies of scale to reach profitability as battery costs remain high. Also, since both Ford and GM will be selling electric pickups at substantially lower prices, I think that they will take market share from Rivian," he said. "The fact that Ford decided to sell Rivian stock rather than partner with Rivian is a long-term problem," he added. He gave Rivian a one-year price target of $15, or 15% downside. — CNBC's Michael Bloom, John Rosevear contributed to this report.