It's that time of year. Time to hear everyone's predictions for 2023; and time to reflect on whether anybody ever knows anything. Feels like not, after the year we've had. (Although there were a few standouts, which we'll highlight next week.)
But this year, we've got some help in the "cutting-through-the-nonsense" department; it's everyone's favorite new chatbot, ChatGPT. In fact, I think I've discovered a perfect use-case for it, thanks to my husband's messing around with it last night.
"Give me 10 uselessly vague predictions about the stock market for 2023," he typed in. Back came the following response, which will amuse anyone who follows financial markets rather closely:
1. Stock prices will remain volatile.
2. Global events will continue to affect trading.
3. Technology will continue to shape the market.
4. Interest rates will continue to play a role in investors' decisions.
5. The market will become increasingly unpredictable.
6. Emerging markets will become increasingly attractive to investors.
7. Companies will increasingly focus on sustainable investments.
8. The rise of digital assets will continue to reshape the market.
9. Regulatory changes will continue to influence the market.
10. The importance of ESG (environmental, social, and governance) investing will grow.
Why do I find this useful? Because you should all take it and ask your financial advisors or wealth managers for their predictions, and see if they pass the "uselessly vague" litmus test.
It's not that these predictions might be wrong, per se, they're just either so safe as to be basically truisms that contain very little actual information, or they're so consensus that you might want to think twice about whether they will actually come true (like "the rise of digital assets" and "the importance of ESG"). Many times the wiser bet is to actually bet against them, as the collapse of crypto and the outperformance of fossil fuels this year demonstrates.
It is at least more fun to come up with zany, wild predictions that may have just as strong a shot at coming true. For instance, in response to "Give me 10 bold predictions for the stock market," ChatGPT's first response is "Bitcoin will be the most widely traded asset in the stock market." Ha, ha, no way...right? But did anyone actually expect the Fed to take rates from zero to almost 4% this year?
Truth is always stranger than fiction. And now we have a new fiction generator to play around with.
See you at 1 p.m!
Kelly