Bernstein says crypto industry set to rebound from this latest 'winter,' like it has before

Published Tue, Jan 3 20232:02 PM ESTUpdated Tue, Jan 3 20234:18 PM EST

If history is any indication, crypto prices will rally exponentially when this crypto winter is over, according to Bernstein. Bitcoin finished 2022 at $16,664, posting a 64% loss for the year and ending more than 75% off its November 2021 all-time high. Even at the current lows, however, the cryptocurrency is up roughly 60% from its 2014 bottom and is five times greater than its 2018 lows. "Prior to 2022, crypto has gone through two winters in its 13-year history and the track record of buying into crypto stress has been spectacular," Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani said in a note Monday. "Crypto as an industry has a great track record of fighting back from its lows and taking punches when down." In 2014, bitcoin posted a 58% loss for the year and fell as low as $284 after beginning the year at $747. It went on to post annual returns of 36%, 120% and 1,375% in the following three years. In 2018, it fell 74% for the year, falling to as low as $3,157 at one point from its starting price for the year of $14,043. In the following three years it rose 95%, 305% and 60%. Ether showed a similar recovery. "We believe crypto is probably amongst the few industries that can clock frontier-tech-like growth, in a broadly maturing tech landscape," he added. "Today, crypto touches less than 5% of total internet users with significant headroom for application led adoption." That focus on applications is part of a critical shift crypto has undergone in the current cycle, according to Chhugani. The industry has pivoted from the "early days of 'crypto-currency'" and is now more focused on applications and utility , he said. He also added that any criticism that crypto applications are "in a speculative feedback loop and thus, we have not seen any mainstream consumer applications beyond speculation" is "fair" but can be solved. "Investors should continue to focus on the long-term consumer adoption of crypto" which "should mirror the growth of the internet, as blockchain applications become more mainstream," he said. "Crypto today has 200 million holders, but around 10 million monthly active wallets using apps," he added. "As blockchains scale and applications mature, we expect the monthly user base to grow 10-100x over the long term. We expect gaming, social and NFT-based digital commerce & brands to lead adoption."