Chevron's head-turning $75 billion buyback may not be all it's cracked up to be

Published Thu, Jan 26 20231:04 PM ESTUpdated Thu, Jan 26 20232:40 PM EST

Jesse Pound @/in/jesse-pound @jesserpound

The massive stock buyback plan unveiled by Chevron on Wednesday may not be much for investors to cheer about, according to Bank of America. The oil giant announced a $75 billion buyback plan and a dividend hike, sending shares up by as much as 4% Thursday. However, the updated Chevron stock buyback plan didn't include any management projections as to timing or an expiration date. Bank of America analyst Doug Leggate said in a note to clients that despite Chevron's headline-grabbing, multibillion-dollar announcement, the repurchases may not even turn out as a true increase from the pace seen in 2022. The latest Chevron buyback amounts to five more years of the current rate of share repurchases. "For now, CVX has not indicated any change of pace from its recent run rate, leaving our assumption that $15bn annually holds, which would equate to five years of visibility. But it also acknowledges a balance sheet headed towards zero net debt and speaks to the balancing act this management has navigated between capital discipline and sustainable dividend growth," the note said. CVX 1Y mountain Chevron is higher by more than 40% in the past year Chevron was operating under a $25 billion buyback plan, announced in 2019, and was on pace to spend most of that last year as of its third-quarter earnings report . Chevron spent $3.75 billion on buybacks in the third quarter, equal to a $15 billion annual rate. But that prior plan is set to expire at the end of March, just before the new authorization becomes effective. Because the $75 billion plan is open-ended, it's also subject to future fluctuations in oil prices, Leggate said. "At our base case, which assumes long-term $80 Brent, sustaining the current buyback pace at $15bn neatly keeps CVX's annual dividend burden effectively flat, while showing the market line of sight for sustained per share [dividend] growth at the recent rate of 6% (for 2 consecutive years). What is not clear is whether the pace would change at lower oil prices or whether it would allow debt to rebuild towards management's 20% threshold," the note said. As a result, Leggate left his investment opinion unchanged at neutral, with a $191 per share price target. Chevron was trading above $184 per share on Thursday morning.