Upside surprises — Credit Suisse predicts these stocks will have a big 2023

Published Thu, Jan 26 202312:15 PM EST

Certain names will surprise to the upside in 2023, according to Credit Suisse, in what's expected to be another volatile year for the stock market. The Wall Street firm identified individual catalysts for a number of stocks it believes will outperform. Those catalysts could be another leg to existing momentum or they could signal a turning point for the stocks, analysts said in a note Thursday. "We identify companies where factors such as the potential for new management, a change in strategy or business model, scope for cost synergies, M & A or asset disposals, and exposure to structural investment trends could be a source of upside surprise in 2023," wrote Richard Kersley, Credit Suisse's head of global equity research product. Here are five of the names on its list for the Americas. Credit Suisse predicts Carnival will see upside to estimates for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in 2023 and 2024. "We think the profitability of the pro forma CCL fleet is better than what is embedded in estimates. We think this disconnect stems from a material overhaul of the CCL fleet (which should lead to cost and fuel efficiency gains) but also significantly better core profitability," analyst Ben Chaiken wrote. Carnival has sold 23 ships, which leaves a pro forma fleet that is four to five times as profitable than the sold assets, he said. That is not reflected in estimates, he added. Chaiken predicts Wall Street's estimates will move higher and the valuation multiple will expand. The cruise line currently trades at a one time to two-times discount to its peers, he said. The cruise line was slammed during the pandemic , with shares down about 77% from three years ago. Carnival has 47% upside to Credit Suisse's $16 price target, as of Wednesday's close. CCL mountain 2020-01-26 Carnival's performance since late January, 2020 Meanwhile, FedEx had a challenging 2022 but could rally nearly 27%, according to Credit Suisse's $238 price target. The firm expects volume declines to stabilize in the coming quarters, which should help the delivery company rationalize expenses and help in its cost-cutting efforts, said analyst Ari Rosa. "The combination of a reasonable valuation and significant embedded investor skepticism offers the potential for meaningful upside in its share price if management can demonstrate progress towards its cost-cutting initiatives," he said. In December, FedEx revealed it will slash an additional $1 billion in costs, bringing its fiscal 2023 total savings to $3.7 billion. For L3Harris Technologies , a turn in supply-chain constraints should be a catalyst. Those constraints drove consistent downward estimate revisions for the stock last year, said analyst Scott Deuschle. However, the New York Federal Reserve's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index has eased since peaking in December 2021. That easing of supply chain issues will enable improved execution at L3Harris Technologies, Deuschle wrote. In turn, that will drive a directional turn in revisions and a multiple rerating from recent negative catalysts, including third-quarter earnings, and rock-bottom sentiment, he added. His $240 price target implies about 21% upside from Wednesday's close. Nvidia also made the list. Analyst Chris Caso pointed to two drivers for the company's business in 2023: datacenter and graphics. Sequential improvement in gaming should begin in the April quarter and there should be meaningful improvement in July and beyond, he explained. "We forecast a return to strong double-digit y/y rev growth in gaming beginning in 2H23, once inventory has normalized," Caso wrote. He also anticipates 50% to 100% content increase in its datacenter, thanks to the addition of its superchip, Grace CPU, in the second half of the year. Nvidia shares have more than 8% upside to Credit Suisse's $210 price target. Lastly, Sunrun has a whopping 172% upside, according to the firm's price target of $66. The solar company is a leader in leases and should benefit from the Inflation Reduction Act, which gives a larger investment tax credit for solar leases compared to loans, analyst Maheep Mandloi said. "We estimate a continued rise in lease market share and higher electric bills due to inflation over the long term," he said. He expects the management team, which focused on cost reductions last year, to look to unlock value through off-balance sheet financing. Sunrun should generate $1 billion in EBITDA in 2024, assuming 8% customer growth, Mandloi added. Barclays has a different view on the stock, downgrading it to equal weight from overweight on Wednesday, due to a potential slowdown in consumer demand. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed reporting.