Most analysts are sticking with AMD even after 'partly cloudy' fourth-quarter earnings

Published Wed, Feb 1 20238:46 AM ESTUpdated Sun, Feb 19 20233:46 PM EST

AMD has released its latest quarterly results, and most analysts liked what they saw. The chipmaker reported Tuesday after th e bell earnings per share of 69 cents on revenue of $5.6 billion . Analysts expected a profit of 67 cents per share on revenue of $5.5 billion. AMD shares popped about 3%. However, the semiconductor manufacturer also announced a likelihood of a 10% decline in year-over-year sales for the current quarter, putting a slight overhang on some analyst outlooks for this year. It adjusted its quarterly sales expectations to $5.3 billion, slightly lower than the $5.47 billion projected by Refinitiv. Those results and guidance come as the company weathers broader headwinds in the semiconductor industry. A protracted slowdown in the global PC market, decreased overall demand for finished electronics, and a glut of supply is challenging AMD and other chipmakers. On Wall Street, several analysts reiterated AMD shares as a buy despite the continued overhangs in the chipmaking industry, and project upside for the stock. Bank of America's Vivek Arya was one of them. AMD 1D mountain AMD pops after earnings AMD is "the only company that can challenge two large incumbents, Intel and Nvidia, in a $80bn+ addressable market opportunity in PC, server, high-end gaming, deep-learning and related markets where AMD has less than 10% value share currently," Arya wrote in a note. "Second, the company's model allows for semi-custom product and licensing options with potential customers, which would create further leverage in the model," Arya added. Goldman Sachs also maintained a buy rating on AMD, saying that despite broader market challenges, the company is on track towards a positive market share trajectory. Analyst Toshiya Hari's price target of $87 implies the stock may rise almost 16% from Tuesday's closing price. "While we expect the competitive landscape in PC and the near-term correction in Data Center to potentially weigh on investor sentiment, we remain constructive on the stock given our expectation for significant market share expansion in server CPU and the potential for margin improvement in 2H23/2024 driven by higher volumes and better mix vs. 1H23 - both idiosyncratic in nature," Hari wrote in a client note on Wednesday. UBS's Timothy Acuri was unfazed by AMD's reduced outlook for the current quarter. "Overall revenue guidance was no worse than most investor bogeys and full year commentary (AMD did not explicitly guide 2023) suggests flattish revenue with an upward bias (confirmed by mgmt on the call) - also no worse than investor bogeys into the report. Ergo, we would characterize this as enough for both sides of the debate to keep things in check for now," Acuri wrote in a Wednesday note. The UBS analyst priced in a 26.4% upside for the stock, setting his price target to $95. "All in, the story in our eyes continues to be about data centers and on this front, AMD's competitive position has only gotten stronger with strong adoption of Genoa and AI is pretty much all upside," Acuri added. "While data center revenue will be down Q/Q in CQ1 as inventory digests, we expect a material revenue snapback in 2H and ASP uplift should remain a strong tailwind even in the face of elevated competitive intensity." To be sure, others weren't as optimistic following AMD's results. 'Partly cloudy' results Deutsche Bank analyst Ross Seymore reiterated a hold rating on the stock, citing its "partially cloudy" fourth-quarter results. He set his price target to $70 price target, implying that the stock has a downside of almost 7%. "Looking past the 1Q challenges, we believe AMD is well-positioned to deliver a stronger 2H23 (DC share gains and cyclical rebound in PC Client/DC), with margins (mix/leverage, etc.) and market share (at least in DC/Embedded) expanding," Seymore wrote in a client note on Tuesday. "This positive inflection into 2H23 will likely appeal to shorter-duration investors, but we remain concerned that relatively slower secular growth and rising competitive intensity will limit EPS and valuation upside." AMD shares have benefited from January's market and tech shares rally, jumping 16.03% since the start of 2023. Nonetheless, shares have dropped almost 36% during the last 12 months. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.