Barclays upgrades United Airlines, sees stock surging more than 50%

Published Fri, Mar 10 20236:14 AM ESTUpdated Fri, Mar 10 20238:06 AM EST

Shares of United Airlines could be in for big gains, according to Barclays. Analyst Brandon R. Oglenski upgraded the airline to overweight. He also raised its price target to $80 from $52, implying 53.5% upside from Thursday's closing price. "Focused leadership and ambitious earnings plans coupled with outsized exposure to growing and lucrative long-haul markets drives attractive risk/reward in UAL shares despite incrementally risky balance," Oglenski wrote in a Friday note. Robust demand for air travel ahead of the peak spring break period also supported the firm's upgrade. Oglenski added that while first-quarter results could be softer given higher fuel prices and a seasonal slump in business travel at the start of the year, a "strong March outcome from both leisure and business demand will drive solid yield guidance for 2Q23." United posted in January a fourth-quarter profit that beat analyst expectations. The company also issued stronger-than-expected 2023 guidance . To be sure, Oglenski noted the likelihood of "pushback" on his upgrade of United shares. "We will address the likely immediate investor pushback on our United upgrade up front: Are you crazy being long UAL with close to $20bn in capital spending the next two years?" the analyst said. "The answer: while United's balance sheet is not likely to see any material de-levering in the near-term, we also suspect delivery delays from Airbus and Boeing make spending the whole $20bn a bit of a challenge. Nonetheless, international competition in both the trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific markets has been reduced with many foreign airlines materially shrinking long-haul aircraft fleets," Oglenski added. Barclays also noted that the ongoing rebound in long-haul international travel will spur outsized benefits for United in 2023. The firm said it is also impressed by the "driven management culture" at United, supporting its favorable margin outlook from 2023 to 2026. United shares have soared 38.2% year to date, continuing a 48% rally during the past 12 months. The stock is still down roughly 40% from its pre-Covid pandemic levels in January 2020. UAL 1Y mountain United Airlines shares surged during the past 12 months — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.