While Federal Reserve interest rate hikes may have slowed, the economic downturn they could have brought on is still possible, CNBC's Jim Cramer said on "Mad Money" on Monday.
That's because the banking crisis that began with Silicon Valley Bank could very well "hasten the downturn that never seemed able to get off the ground," Cramer said.
There are a few key ways that the bank-prompted slowdown could play out, Cramer said, and it won't be layoffs or the Fed that will drive them.
Rather, it'll show up in how consumers and small businesses alike are able to obtain credit, he said. There will be a "backlash" prompted by the rash of bank failures in recent weeks, with small- and medium-sized businesses plucking any cash they've stored at regional banks that sits above the FDIC-insured limit of $250,000.
"Those are bedrock deposits that are being lost right now," Cramer said, which banks rely on to provide balance sheet strength and allow them to lend to those same businesses. Lending standards will become tighter which will hurt homebuyers first, he said.
That means less money in consumers' pockets for luxury electronic goods like Sonos at Best Buy, to say nothing of higher-end housewares from Williams Sonoma or Restoration Hardware, Cramer continued.
The knock-on effects could hit car buyers, who might choose to repair instead of buy a new vehicle. And for travelers, it might mean Yellowstone instead of a bonanza overseas trip, Cramer said.
It's not possible to totally excuse the central bank for the turn of events, Cramer said, given that it doled our four consecutive rate hikes that precipitated underlying issues at banks like SVB and Silvergate. But the consumer is most likely to feel the sting at home, at the dealership and when they're planning their vacations, he said.
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