Currencies

U.S. dollar gains as risk appetite wanes

US dollars and Euro bills are pictured on September 6, 2022 in Brest, western France.
Fred Tanneau | Afp | Getty Images

The dollar rose on Tuesday as market sentiment turned risk-averse amid worries about earnings and the outlook for the global economy, which knocked the euro off a nearly 10-month high.

The U.S. dollar index climbed 0.48% to 101.84, having dropped more than 4% since March 8.

A weak consumer confidence report and a decline in Federal Reserve manufacturing data further added to the dollar's safe-haven appeal.

Data showed U.S. consumer confidence fell to a nine-month low in April, a survey showed on Tuesday. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell to 101.3 — the lowest since July 2022 - from a revised 104.0 in March.

The U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index slid as well, down at -10 in April., the fourth straight month of contraction.

Both surveys negated strong U.S. housing data, which showed new home sales beat estimates with a 9.6% rise in March to a one-year high of 683,000 after net revisions.

"Today is more about defensive risk sentiment, especially in equities. It's hard to detect a strong trend though," said Vassili Serebriakov, FX strategist at UBS in New York.

"The bias is for dollar weakness, but I think until U.S. data weakens substantially, it's hard to see that trend really picking up," he added.

News on Monday of plunging deposits at First Republic Bank served as a reminder that stability risks have not entirely died down, while UBS reported a 52% slide in quarterly income.

Still, safe haven currencies - such as Japan's yen - firmed, even as the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) new governor Kazuo Ueda signalled he was not in a hurry to shift policy. This week's BOJ meeting, which concludes on Friday, is his first in charge.

"You need to respect the guidance that Ueda is giving, that we won't see any changes on Friday. But I think tightening will come from the BOJ, maybe in June or July, because inflation is well above target," said Jens Nærvig Pedersen, director, FX and rates strategy, at Danske Bank.

The yen fell 0.39% to 133.70 per dollar. The euro was down around 0.62% against the dollar at $1.0973.

ECB board member Isabel Schnabel told Politico that a 50 basis point (bp) rate hike was not off the table and would depend on data - notably inflation figures due two days before May's meeting.