This style of dividend 'aristocrat' ETF could outperform going into a recession

Published Thu, Apr 27 202311:30 AM EDT

Jesse Pound @/in/jesse-pound @jesserpound

The potential combination of a recession and high interest rates could drive investors back to some of the most reliable companies on the market, and boost a few dividend ETFs. Wolfe Research chief investment strategist Chris Senyek said in a note to clients on Thursday that investors should take a look at so-called dividend aristocrats, which tend to perform well when the economic outlook deteriorates. "Our sense is that the market is coming around to our view that the Fed is going to be 'higher for longer' and a deeper-than-expected recession is going to hit this year. As such, we recommend buying Dividend Aristocrats, which are companies that have a long track record of increasing dividends," Senyek said. "Historically, this cohort of stocks has materially outperformed the overall market going into or during recessions. Additionally, Dividend Aristocrats' outperformance has tended to persist during the initial stages of recoveries, which also tend to be highly uncertain environments," he added. The S & P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index includes the companies in the broader market index that have increased dividends for at least 25 consecutive years. The group added three new members earlier this year, including J.M. Smucker . One fund that tracks the group directly is the ProShares S & P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) . The $11 billion fund has underperformed the broader market so far this year, with a total return of about 1%, but outperformed in 2022. The top holdings in NOBL include Albemarle , Caterpillar and Federal Realty Investment Trust . ProShares also has smaller funds following a similar formula for dividend growers that are mid-cap stocks ( REGL ) and tech stocks ( TDV ). Other large funds that focus on stocks with growing dividends, but not the aristocrats index directly, are the $66 billion Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG) and the $8 billion WisdomTree US Quality Dividend Growth Fund (DGRW) . Those funds have a total return of 1.7%% and 3%, respectively, so far this year. Another similar product is the iShares Core Dividend ETF (DIVB) . It is smaller, with less than $300 million in assets, but has an expense ratio of just 0.05%. The fund is down about 1% year to date. And for investors who like to own companies that return cash to shareholders but aren't necessarily hunting for income, the Invesco BuyBack Achievers ETF (PKW) could be a better fit. The fund has a total return of -2.5% this year. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.