Solar energy investment is set to overtake oil. How to trade it

Published Thu, Jun 8 20239:55 AM EDTUpdated Thu, Jun 8 202310:24 AM EDT

Solar investment could reach a turning point in 2023, and some stocks are well-positioned to benefit from the boom. Last month, the International Energy Agency said solar investments are expected to top $1 billion per day in 2023, putting them on track to outpace the amount of investment going into oil production for the first time. This rise comes as solar goes from "'the most expensive to the cheapest electricity in history," said Michael Grubb, professor of energy and climate change at University College London, during the World Bank's Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics earlier this week. "Generally now, both solar and wind, the two biggest renewables — not everywhere, but as a broad international aggregate — are cheaper than fossil fuels as a way of generating electricity," Grubb said. "That is a pretty fundamental change from what we looked at a few years ago. ... [The renewables revolution] turned out to be much cheaper than anyone predicted." Grubb noted that the success of solar energy and renewable energy technologies have all involved "government action at scale over many years on both the technology, resource-mapping development and the demand for the price components." In the U.S., the Inflation Reduction Act is expected to lead to $600 billion in new investment in solar technology, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association. Given this backdrop, CNBC Pro screened for solar stocks that can outperform during this investment boom. The companies on the list met the following criteria: Global X Solar ETF or Invesco Solar ETF member Market cap of $1 billion or greater Nasdaq or New York Stock Exchange-listed stock Buy ratings from at least 60% of analysts Upside to average price targets of 20% or more Enphase Energy shares made the list and are expected to surge more than 35%, based on the average analyst price target. More than 62% of analysts are bullish on the home solar energy company. Enphase's latest quarterly revenue fell short of analysts' estimates, though, according to Refinitiv data. The stock has tumbled more than 30% year to date. ReNew Energy Global also made the list, with more than 85% of analysts rating them as buy. The company develops, builds, owns and operates utility-scale renewable energy projects in India. ReNew Energy's average price target suggests shares rallying 47% in the coming months. Shares are down about 1% year to date. Over the past 12 months, the stock has lost 25%. Sunnova Energy also made the list of high-potential solar companies. More than three-quarters of analysts covering the stock rate it a buy. Morgan Stanley recently highlighted Sunnova as one of its best stock picks to play the transition toward renewable energy. The residential solar energy provider could see shares surge almost 90%, according to its average price target. Shares are flat in 2023 but have declined 21.6% over the past 12 months.