Nasdaq had its best first six months in 40 years. Here's what stands in the way next week

Published Sat, Jul 1 20238:25 AM EDT

Wall Street pressed higher for the week, the month, the quarter, and the first half of 2023 as economic data improved the odds that the Federal Reserve will pull off the so-called soft landing that many thought impossible just a year ago. In fact, the Nasdaq , led by an incredible rally in tech stocks, completed its best start to a year in four decades. Looking ahead, it will be a shorter week with the markets opening for a half day on Monday and closed on Tuesday in celebration of Independence Day. There are a number of important data points due out — but none more important than the government's employment report for June. Investors are closely monitoring the job market for signs of an uptick in unemployment given the view that a tight labor market leads to higher wages — which in turn support elevated levels of inflation. For this reason, we remind members that the unemployment rate and wage inflation numbers will be the two big line items to watch. While not solely responsible for Friday's market's strength, it didn't hurt that Apple (AAPL) — the largest company in the S & P 500 and the world, for that matter — for the first time closed with a market value above $3 trillion. The company previously reached the $3 trillion mark in January 2022 but didn't close at that level. Club stock Apple finished the second quarter with a 17.6% gain and the first half of the year with a 49% advance. However, Nvidia (NVDA) and Meta Platforms (META) were our undisputed first-half-of-the-year winners. Nvidia rose 52% in Q2 and nearly tripled so far in 2023. Meta jumped 35% in the second quarter and 138% year to date. The worst two stocks in our portfolio in the first half were Foot Locker (FL) and Estee Lauder (EL). Foot Locker lost nearly 32% in Q2 and 28% in 2023. Estee Lauder lost 20% in the second quarter and nearly 21% year to date. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 3.4% in the second quarter and 3.8% for the year. The S & P 500 gained 8.3% in Q2 and nearly 16% in 2023. But, it was the Nasdaq that outshined them all — soaring nearly 13% in the second quarter and almost 32% in the first six months of the year. The Nasdaq also gained the most Friday — adding nearly 1.5%. Also helping the major stock benchmarks was the fact that all 23 of the U.S. banks included in the Federal Reserve's annual stress test , passed the severe recession scenario, with room to spare in their capital buffers. Both of our bank stocks — Wells Fargo (WFC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) — had strong weeks. After the bell Friday, Morgan Stanley said it would increase its dividend and share buybacks as a result of the Fed stress tests. Wells Fargo said it would raise its dividend. No portfolio companies will be reporting earnings next week. Here's the full rundown of all the important domestic data in the week ahead. Monday, July 3 10 a.m. ET: ISM Manufacturing PMI Markets close at 1 p.m. ET Tuesday, July 4 Markets closed for Independence Day Wednesday, July 5 10 a.m. ET: Factory Orders 2 p.m. ET: FOMC Minutes Thursday, July 6 8:15 a.m. ET: ADP Employment report 8:30 a.m. ET: Weekly initial jobless claims 10 a.m. ET: ISM Services PMI After the bell: Levi Strauss (LEVI) Friday, July 7 8:30 a.m. ET: Nonfarm payrolls report Looking back On Tuesday, new home sales were reported to have increased 12.2% monthly in May, and up 20% annually, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 736,000, well ahead of the 675,000 expected on the Street. On Thursday, May pending home sales were reported to have fallen 2.7% monthly, a steeper drop than expected. The third and final revision to first-quarter gross domestic product on Thursday showed annualized economic growth of 2% in the first quarter, up from the 1.3% rate we saw in the second estimate. Initial jobless claims were also released on Thursday, and indicated a decrease of 26,000 in the week ended June 24 to 239,000, below the 264,000 expected. Finally, on Friday, we learned that personal spending rose just 0.1% monthly in May, half what analysts were looking for and a sharp slowdown from April's 0.6% monthly rate of advance. More importantly, however, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, increased 0.3% monthly and 4.6% annually. That monthly figure was in line with expectations while the annual rate was a tick below the 4.7% estimated by analysts. Also, Friday, Corona and Modelo maker Constellation Brands (STZ) reported a solid quarter and stronger guidance. We raised our Club price target slightly, to $270 per share from $260. That's just under 23 times the midrange of management's full-year-earnings forecast. As of Friday's settle, the U.S. dollar index is just under 103. Gold has pulled back to around $1,925 per ounce. WTI crude prices continue to hover around $70 per barrel. The yield on the 10-year Treasury is holding at about 3.8%. There were no Investing Club trades this week. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

Apple CEO Tim Cook speaks with media members at a viewing area for new products during Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) at the Apple Park campus in Cupertino, California, on June 5, 2023.

Josh Edelson | AFP | Getty Images