TD Cowen analyst just made a risky buy call on a bitcoin play

Published Wed, Jul 26 20239:34 AM EDT

Jesse Pound @/in/jesse-pound @jesserpound

Investors looking for ways to bet on crypto should look closer at a software company with a unique balance sheet, according to TD Cowen. Analyst Lance Vitanza initiated coverage of MicroStrategy at outperform, saying in a note to clients on Wednesday that the stock was the "best way for institutions to acquire exposure to bitcoin." "MSTR is a leading provider of [business intelligence] software, but with a twist: it uses all its retained earnings – and then some – to buy and hold bitcoins. This is not a short-term trading strategy but rather reflects a belief that ultimately, bitcoin will prove a superior store of value relative to metals and fiat currencies. We see MSTR as an attractive vehicle for investors looking to gain Bitcoin exposure," the note said. Microstrategy's stock comes without some of the fees associated with ETFs or buying bitcoin outright, while its underlying business and balance helps provide downside protection, according to Vitanza. According to a securities filing , MicroStrategy held 152,333 bitcoins on its balance sheet as of June 27, at an aggregate purchase price of roughly $4.5 billion. The company's market cap is less than $6 billion. The stock has actually outperformed bitcoin this year, rising more than 200%. But Microstrategy's shares are down more than 40% since November 2021, which is when bitcoin hit its record high. MSTR 5Y mountain Shares of MicroStrategy are still below their highs from 2011. The company has also seen drama in its C-suite. Michael Saylor — the company's executive chairman, former CEO and a bitcoin booster — was accused of tax evasion by the DC attorney general last year. Meanwhile, the company's chief revenue officer resigned on July 5. The volatile stock is covered by just a handful of Wall Street firms. Vitanza's price target of $520 per share is the highest among the analysts that do cover the stock, according to FactSet, and is 19% above where shares closed on Tuesday. The potential positive catalysts for MicroStrategy's stock includes some boosts for bitcoin more broadly, such as the approval of a spot bitcoin ETF and an upcoming halving, according to the note. MicroStrategy is also pushing for accounting rule changes related to bitcoin that could improve its reported numbers.