Here are three things we're watching in the markets in the week ahead

Published Sat, Sep 16 202310:00 AM EDT

The S & P 500 and the Nasdaq finished an up-and-down week slightly in the red after Friday's steep slide on higher bond yields and oil prices wiped out Thursday's strong rally inspired by the big IPO of Arm (ARM). The Dow Jones Industrial Average , meanwhile, managed to post a very slight weekly gain. The Softbank-owned chip designer's return to the public markets — the largest initial public offering since 2021 — was the highlight of the week. The stock fell about 4% on Friday after soaring nearly 25% on Thursday. The success of the Arm deal sent the biggest signal yet that the IPO market may be coming out of its two-year hibernation — which, in turn, is seen as bullish for banks, such as Morgan Stanley (MS), which have been starved of new offerings. While Morgan Stanley and fellow Club name Wells Fargo (WFC) were dragged down in the broader market sell-off Friday, they both had strong weeks. The Arm-boost to the overall stock market faded Friday as big questions loomed for investors ahead such as the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates, the economic impact of oil over $91 per barrel, and the targeted United Auto Workers strikes at all three U.S. automakers. Those are the three things that we'll be focusing on in the week ahead. 1. The Fed holds its two-day September meeting starting Tuesday. A quarterly summary of Fed officials' economic projections is out with the policy statement Wednesday afternoon, followed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's news conference. No interest rate increase is expected this time around, but there are still roughly 30% market odds on a rate hike before the end of the year, according to the CME's FedWatch tool , especially after this week's inflation data came in a bit hot. The August consumer price index, out this past Wednesday, registered its biggest monthly increase this year , boosted by higher energy prices. However, the August rise in core CPI, which excludes the energy and food components, exceeded expectations. One day later, the August producer price index saw the biggest monthly gain since June 2022 . The Fed has raised rates 11 times since March 2022, which was the first hike in nearly four years. 2. Energy prices continued to soar in September, with West Texas Intermediate crude rising to 10-month highs above $91 per barrel. The U.S. oil benchmark posted a third weekly gain as supply tightness led by Saudi Arabian production cuts combined with optimism around Chinese demand to lift crude. While struggling to snap back after Covid, China this week reported better-than-expected industrial output and stronger retail sales, signaling that things may be looking up. If the world's second-biggest economy is, indeed, starting to awaken, then it's going to need lots of oil and other goods and services. Our oil stocks, Coterra Energy (CTRA) and Pioneer Natural Resources, only do business in the U.S. However, they have jumped recently on the pop in WTI. Jim Cramer believes it's not too late to buy either of them. 3. The United Auto Workers strike against Detroit's three biggest automakers will continue in the week ahead, barring a labor deal. The UAW launched walkouts at three plants — one at General Motors (GM), one at Chrysler-owned Stellantis (STLA) and one at Club name Ford (F) — after the union and the companies were unable to reach a new labor deal by Thursday's deadline of 11:59 p.m. That's when the old contract expired. Ford CEO Jim Farley told CNBC late Thursday that union demands would boost UAW members' pay to $300,000 per year for a four-day workweek. No matter which side "wins," the path ahead is bigger than the power dynamics within the auto industry, as we pointed out in a commentary Friday . It could prove to be a further catalyst for what every American worker fears: more machines taking away jobs from humans. Here's a full rundown of all the important domestic data in the week ahead as the Club gauges whether to put more money to work in a market that's getting oversold. We bought more shares of Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) on Friday, taking advantage of the decline in the stock of a company we view as a turnaround story. On Monday, we sold some Eli Lilly (LLY) shares, booking big profits on a stock that's been on a roll lately. Monday, Sept. 18 After the bell: Stitch Fix (SFIX) Tuesday, Sept. 19 8:30 a.m. ET: Housing starts and building permits Before the bell: AutoZone (AZO), Apogee Enterprise (APOG) After the bell: Steelcase (SCS) Wednesday, Sept. 20 2 p.m. ET: FOMC concludes two-day September meeting with interest rate decision and summary of economic projections 2:30 p.m ET: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell conducts post-meeting news conference Before the bell: General Mills (GIS) After the bell: FedEx (FDX), KB Home (KBH) Thursday, Sept. 21 8:30 a.m. ET: Initial jobless claims 10 a.m. ET: Existing home sales Before the bell: Darden Restaurants (DRI), FactSet (FDS) Friday, Sept. 22 8:50 a.m. ET: Fed Governor Lisa Cook is set to deliver the keynote address at the NBER's Economics of Artificial Intelligence Conference in Toronto, Canada. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Sept. 11, 2023.

Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters