Goldman Sachs raises international oil price forecast to $100 a barrel

Published Wed, Sep 20 20239:54 AM EDTUpdated Wed, Sep 20 202312:12 PM EDT

Oil prices are looking to edge as high as $100 a barrel, according to Goldman Sachs. Nonetheless, the firm believes the economy is still headed toward a soft landing despite the rise in fuel prices. Goldman raised its 12-month ahead Brent forecast to $100 per barrel from $93. The commodity has rallied 30% since late June due to OPEC supply cuts and strong demand. Brent touched a high of $95.96 on Tuesday, its highest level since November 2022, before shedding nearly 0.9% at $93.52 on Wednesday morning. The firm also increased its 12-month ahead WTI price forecast to $95 a barrel from $88. WTI hit $93.74 on Tuesday, also its highest point since November 2022. Prices for WTI declined nearly 0.9% to $90.42 on Wednesday. Analyst Daan Struyven cited modestly sharper inventory draws for the forecast increase, a trend he described as "lower for longer" supply. "The key reason is that significantly lower OPEC supply and higher demand more than offset significantly higher US supply," Struyven said in a Wednesday note. "Overall, we believe that OPEC will be able to sustain Brent in an $80-$105 range in 2024 by leveraging robust Asia-centric global demand growth (1.8mb/d) and by exercising its pricing power assertively." The strong OPEC cut means that Brent is unlikely to consistently fall under $80 a barrel next year, Struyven added. He also believes Brent prices are unlikely to sustainably exceed $105 a barrel next year. Higher oil prices have boosted inflation , sparking concerns in the market. The consumer price index gained 0.6% month-over-month in August, its highest monthly gain of 2023. Energy prices contributed heavily to the increase, rising 5.6% on the month and including a 10.6% jump in gasoline prices. Although Struyven acknowledged the uptick to inflation and effects on real income growth, he does not believe rising energy prices will derail the soft landing. "Most of the oil rally is likely behind us," said Struyven. "The oil hit to growth in the U.S. and Europe likely remains moderate, and natural gas prices remain low." — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.