Investing in Space: Firefly's successful launch represents a key moment for company's future

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Social media lit up Thursday evening with imagery of an object tearing through the dusk California sky. A rocket, seemingly unannounced, had launched and was putting on a show as it headed for space.

But a few space insiders knew what was up: Firefly's Alpha rocket, carrying the Space Force's ambitious Victus Nox mission with a satellite built by Millennium. For those in the know, the question wasn't, "What's happening here?" but instead, "Did it work?" 

The trio of space organizations was targeting a seemingly absurd 24-hour launch timeline per the Space Force's rapid response goals. And Firefly had the most at stake in the practice run, for two important reasons. 

First, this was the third Alpha rocket that Firefly's launched. The inaugural mission was quite spectacular, although unsuccessful. The second nearly made its destination, but the orbit it reached wasn't quite right. While not a demo, Victus Nox felt like that "third time's the charm" moment to prove they can do this launch thing from start to finish.

Second, Victus Nox was no ordinary mission. Earlier this summer I took a deep dive into the stakes and what the Space Safari group wanted to do: Demonstrate private companies, satellite and rocket builders alike, can meet timelines as speedy as 24 hours. The previous record for a "Tactical Responsive Space" (TacRS) mission? Not measured in hours, but 21 days.

Firefly shattered that prior record, completing all launch prep in 24 hours and launching at the first available window. With Space Force's lucrative NSSL Phase 3 bidding process a fast-approaching glimmer on the horizon, I caught up with Firefly CEO Bill Weber to unpack the vibe at their Texas headquarters.

"If you could walk around Firefly this morning, I think they want to hand-carry the rocket out to Vandenberg and go again," Weber said. "The energy couldn't be higher right now in the company."

Weber put the mission's significance simply: "You cannot understate the credibility and the confidence that completing this mission – and all that it asked of Firefly – did with the customer."

That customer, the deep-pocketed Pentagon, is about to spend big on rocket launches through a program known as "NSSL Phase 3," and Firefly wants in on that. The company's working with Northrop Grumman on a larger rocket – for now known as the MLV, or medium launch vehicle. Weber declared MLV is "designed for" the NSSL competition's newly-created "Lane 1." And, more importantly, Weber said his company is on schedule to ship its contribution for MLV to Northrop by the end of 2024. In full, the companies want to launch the inaugural MLV in about two years, to earn the military's qualification "in the earliest window that we can possibly on ramp to Lane 1."

"What we just did with Alpha proves that we will sign up to really audacious goals and we'll meet 'em," Weber said. 

"Unlike a lot of the competitors that are trying to bring medium launch vehicles to life, this is not new engineering for us. This is a larger, scaled up version of the same rocket that just flew … [that] brings our timeframes to production down and shortens that gap [to launching MLV]."

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• Senators ask Pentagon for clarity on Starlink's use in Ukraine, with a trio of members of the Committee on Armed Services asking U.S. military leaders whether Elon Musk "directed the unilateral disabling or impediment of function of Starlink satellite communications terminals used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in southern Ukraine in 2022," or ever had the authority to do so. – CNBC
• Advent reorganizes Maxar into two businesses, splitting it into a "Maxar Intelligence" company of its imagery and data products under interim CEO Dan Jablonsky and a "Maxar Space Infrastructure" company that will oversee its manufacturing under CEO Chris Johnson. Jablonsky had been the CEO of Maxar since 2019. – SpaceNews
• Sierra Space completed its 5th burst test of a sub-scale LIFE habitat, which included a "blanking plate" that acts as an engineering proxy for a window. – Sierra
• AST SpaceMobile claims success in 5G satellite test, saying it demonstrated "the first-ever 5G cellular connectivity from space directly to normal mobile phones." – AST
• FAA proposes 25-year rocket orbital debris removal rule, with the regulator seeking to require companies remove any launch-related parts, primarily in an effort to responsibly dispose of rockets' upper stages. – FAA

• Starlink signs with private jet operator Flexjet for in-flight WiFi with an executive of the aviator saying Starlink is "the most significant technology advancement for private jet travel that we've seen in the last 2 decades." – Flexjet
• Space traffic startup Kayhan raises $7 million in a seed extension round, with funds from Space Capital and EVE Atlas. – Kayhan
• Astroscale awarded $25.5 million Space Force contract for a satellite orbital refueling demonstration mission in 2026. – Space Force
• True Anomaly awarded $17.4 million Space Force contract to support satellite operator efficiency and collision avoidance, especially for the military's growing SDA constellation. – True Anomaly
• ABL awarded $15 million Space Force contract for a responsive launch mission, with the company saying it plans to execute the TacRS launch "within the next two years." – Read more
• Spire wins $2.8 million NOAA contract to provide satellite weather data as part of the "Ocean Surface Winds Pilot Study" over 12 months. – Spire

• Rocket Lab stock fell 8% after the company's 41st Electron launch failed, the company's first unsuccessful mission in over two years after a string of 19 completed launches. Rocket Lab is investigating the cause of the failure, and apologized to its customer Capella for the loss of the Acadia 2 satellite. – CNBC
• Terran Orbital stock fell 20% on Tuesday after the company announced it was raising $32.5 million from a public offering through H.C. Wainwright, at a combined price of $1.40 a share, which the company expects to use for "general corporate purposes." – Terran Orbital
• Iridium is 'the AT&T of Space,' according to a note WestPark Capital sent to clients on Thursday. The firm gave Iridium's stock a buy rating with a $65 price target, representing a 33% from current levels. In its note, the firm said "Iridium has established itself as the undisputed Number One provider of satellite mobile communications, a position that we believe will allow the company to sustain a premium multiple based on its growth and highly defensible market position." – WestPark Capital

• Gary Hobart shifts Terran Orbital roles to Chief Transformation Officer, leaving his role as CFO, with the company naming SVP and Corporate Controller Mathieu Riffel as acting CFO. – Terran Orbital
• Kim Nakamaru named General Counsel at Relativity, joining the company's executive leadership team from geospatial tech firm EagleView. – Relativity
• Dave Jungkind appointed as Advanced Space's first Chief Revenue Officer, coming to the company after his role as VP of business development for RTX's SEAKR Engineering business. – Advanced Space

• Sep. 23: SpaceX's Falcon 9 launches Starlink satellites from Florida.
• Sep. 24: NASA's OSIRIS-Rex asteroid sample return mission lands capsule in Utah.
• Sep. 25: SpaceX's Falcon 9 launches Starlink satellites from California.
• Sept. 28: ispace hosts grand opening of U.S. headquarters in Denver with updates about its "Series 2" lunar lander.