Ride the weight loss drug wave with this gym stock set to nearly double, says Evercore ISI

Published Tue, Oct 17 202312:27 PM EDTUpdated Tue, Oct 17 202312:38 PM EDT

Planet Fitness shares could soar as new weight loss drugs become popular and users flock to the gym, according to Evercore ISI. "We're throwing PLNT's hat in the ring as one of the best consumer plays on GLP-1, and one that still has significant juice in the stock," wrote analyst Warren Cheng. Evercore currently has an outperform rating on the gym stock and a target price of $100. That implies nearly 90% upside from the stock's Monday closing price of $52.73. Shares of Planet Fitness have dropped about 30% in 2023, plunging 16% in a single day last month when the company announced the surprise ousting of CEO Chris Rondeau . But Cheng sees upside potential ahead, especially amid a swelling market for drugs known as glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists . PLNT YTD mountain PLNT YTD chart GLP-1 drugs stimulate insulin secretion, making patients feel fuller faster, and have been heralded for their revolutionary benefits when it comes to treating diabetes and obesity. Citi's Peter Verdult forecast that GLP-1 sales could hit $30 billion for diabetes treatment and $6 billion for obesity in 2023, but that pales in comparison to the $100 billion a year in sales that analysts have projected by the end of this decade. Although GLP-1 drugs aid weight loss by suppressing appetite, it's still essential for patients to adopt healthy habits for long-term success. That includes eating better and exercising. Exercise is also a good way to offset muscle loss, another side effect that can result from using GLP-1 medications. This is a positive development for Planet Fitness, resulting in a rush of new gym memberships, Cheng said. "Our analysis suggests that GLP-1s will have a disproportionate (positive) impact on PLNT's target demographic … and with significant number of Americans entering PLNT's demographic 'sweet spot', we think there is wave of new membership coming for the gym industry," the analyst wrote. "We expect 70-80% of GLP-1 joiners to join Planet Fitness." This translates to an influx of between 500,000 and 1.5 million new members for Planet Fitness by 2025, an increase in annual member growth by about 25%, Cheng added. He estimated that one million new members would amount to roughly 15% upside in earnings per share for Planet Fitness by 2025. — CNBC's Christina Cheddar-Berk and Michael Bloom contributed to this report.