Chinese consumer stocks that analysts like for their global potential

Published Sun, Oct 29 20235:56 PM EDT

Evelyn Cheng @in/evelyn-cheng-53b23624 @chengevelyn

In a dismal year for most Chinese stocks, a few consumer names with growing international revenue have outperformed the market — and are forecast to climb further. Take, for example, U.S.-listed Miniso , up more than 140% so far this year. Through its network of brick-and-mortar stores, the company sells low-cost home goods and toys that are often co-branded with popular icons such as Barbie . "We expect Miniso to report another strong quarter in 1QFY24," Jefferies analysts wrote in an Oct. 24 report. “Both China and overseas markets likely to report ~39-40% sales growth, thanks to store penetration," the Jefferies report said. The analysts expect Miniso will release earnings at the end of November. They have a buy rating on the stock and raised their price target to $29.30 a share — up nearly 13% from where Miniso shares closed Thursday in New York trading. Miniso said that as of June 30, it had more than 3,600 stores in China and nearly 2,200 stores overseas. In consumer electronics, Hong Kong-traded Xiaomi has been one of the many Chinese brands selling outside the home market. Xiaomi's third-quarter global smartphone shipments could grow by 20% to 29% from the prior quarter and also post a recovery from a year ago, Morgan Stanley analysts said in an Oct. 18 report, citing preliminary data from Canalys. Xiaomi shares are up more than 20% so far this year despite a more than 10% slump in the broader Hong Kong stock market. The company also sells televisions, home appliances and wearables. "We believe good shipment momentum and resilient margins could support a strong 3Q23," the Morgan Stanley report said. The analysts have an overweight rating on Xiaomi shares with a 15 Hong Kong dollar price target — up 11% from Friday's close. Also swiftly grabbing global smartphone market share thanks to a rebound in emerging markets is Shanghai-listed Transsion, the Morgan Stanley report said, noting the company had a 9% share — vying with Chinese smartphone brand Oppo for fourth-place worldwide. "These short-term wins might turn into more sustainable long-term success for Xiaomi and Transsion, according to Canalys," the analysts said. Shares of Transsion, not covered in the Morgan Stanley report, are up nearly 70% so far this year. The Shenzhen-based smartphone maker sells to customers in Africa, India and other emerging markets. China e-commerce 'best growth play' Another solid performer on a year-to-date basis is U.S.-listed Pinduoduo , up more than 30% for 2023. The Temu parent is notoriously secretive about how that overseas e-commerce operation is doing. But J.P. Morgan China Internet analyst Andre Chang estimates that despite losses, Temu this year will generate gross merchandise volume of 70 billion yuan ($957 million) — and more than double that next year. "On the path to profit, we believe Temu can increase prices to 40-60% of Amazon's comparable products, vs current 20-40%, which should be enough to make the business profitable," Chang said in a report this month. "We expect Temu to turn profitable in 2025 with operating profit of Rmb3.4bn, assuming it doesn't increase investments for faster growth." Before then, Chang expects Pinduoduo's core China revenue will still outgrow its peers — primarily Alibaba and JD.com — as the "best growth play" in China e-commerce. He has a price target of $120, up 9% from where Pinduoduo shares close on Thursday. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.