The numbers are in, and Black Friday was kind of a dud this year. It was definitely a dud for the whole "let's-go-storm-Walmart-for-a-$200-50-inch-TV" type of thing. In-store sales were up just 1.1% from a year ago. And that's nominal. So after inflation--call it 3.2% based on the latest CPI--"real" sales actually fell by 2.1%.  

I happened to be in Target on Saturday morning, because I needed to buy a couple of family table games (Bingo, etc.) to help us make it through the rest of the long weekend. I went early, knowing it would probably still be a madhouse, between Black Friday sales still running and stores in our county not being open on Sundays. Surprise--plenty of parking.  

At checkout, which was also shockingly swift, I mentioned this to the cashier. "Not as bad as I thought today," I said. "Was it super crazy yesterday, though?" She raised her eyebrows and shook her head. "Slowest Black Friday I've ever worked," she said. "We had maybe 40 people at the door when we opened, it was busy at times, but it was also dead at times 

I asked why she thought that was. "I don't know, but I think people just buy online now," she said, adding that their busiest time on Friday was actually mid-to-late afternoon, when people were just ready to get out of the house. And the Mastercard SpendingPulse numbers back her up. While in-store sales struggled, online sales surged 8.5% year-on-year, helping make the "total" spending number for the day a healthier 2.5% overall. 

Mastercard said the Amazon Black Friday football game--the first ever for that day--might have helped drive online spending. They also noted that restaurant sales on Black Friday continue to be strong, again suggesting that consumers are looking for ways to spend time together more than they are simply looking for a great in-store shopping deal.  

I mean honestly, that all sounds pretty healthy. People spending time together and shopping leisurely versus obsessing over 4 a.m. door-busters? Probably a step in the right direction. The only tiny little problem with all of this is (a) it could be a sign of broader consumer spending weakness, and (b) it could leave a revenue hole for certain retailers.  

And we are seeing other warning signs. Not least Walmart's commentary from two weeks ago that they are thinking "slightly more cautiously" about the consumer after weak October sales. "Walmart turned out to be right, [and] there is quite a bit of discount deflation coming through," warned NewEdge Wealth. "Since November 14th, across a range of products, prices have been dropping by an average of 15%," on things like TVs, computers, furniture, appliances, and sporting goods.  

Those retailers most exposed to a weak fourth quarter would be department and toy stores, which get more than a third of their annual sales in the period; electronics and warehouse stores (27-28%), and even liquor stores, according to Census data. GameStop, for instance, got 37% of its revenue last year in the final quarter, as Morning Brew points out.  

So if consumers simply don't need to show up for Black Friday deals like they used to, that's one thing. But if this year's ghost town is a sign of broader consumer trouble, that will be nothing to celebrate.  

See you at 1 p.m! 

Kelly 

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