How every Club stock performed over the past 10 Decembers, a historically strong month

Published Tue, Dec 5 20236:01 AM EST

Kevin Stankiewicz @in/kevin-stankiewicz-b5593466 @kevin_stank

The holiday cheer was nowhere to be found on Wall Street last year: Both December and all of 2022 closed with brutal thuds . What a difference a year makes: Short of a calamity this December 2023 promises to be a banner year for investors. Similar to November , December is a historically fruitful month for the market. The S & P 500 has posted monthly gains in 76% of all Decembers since 1945, according to CFRA chief investment strategist Sam Stovall. That frequency is the best of any month ahead of April's 71% and November's 67%. On average, the S & P 500 has gained 1.54% in December since 1945, the third highest average return behind April, at 1.57%, and November, at 1.55%, according to CFRA data. After closing at its highest level of 2023 on Friday , the first day of December, the S & P 500 fell Monday. Returns at the beginning of December are generally not much to write home about — due, in part, to tax-loss selling that can occur. But the back half of the month is thought to be a more jolly period — including a seven-day window known as the Santa Claus rally. This stretch of days — the final five trading sessions of the year and the first two of the new year — tends to deliver gains for the S & P 500 and boost the index's overall December performance. .SPX mountain 2013-11-29 S & P 500 performance since December 2013 In more recent history, December hasn't been as kind to stocks compared with its long-term track record. Over the past decade, the S & P 500 has been positive in the month just six out of 10 times — below its 76% frequency of advance over the long run — and its average monthly performance has been a 0.12% decline. To be sure, the S & P 500's 9.2% swoon in December 2018 , as hawkish Federal Reserve commentary reverberated through equity markets, figures heavily into the average decline. So, too, does the 5.9% drop last December. It's a prescient reminder that seasonal patterns are not perfect and should not shape long-term investment decisions in individual stocks. What matters most over the long run is a given company's fundamentals. At the same time, however, keeping tabs on historical trends can help investors interpret near-term moves in the stock market. A mixed picture is revealed when looking at how every Club stock has performed in December over the past decade. GE Healthcare (GEHC), which went public in January, is excluded. Fifty percent of Club holdings have registered average monthly gains. In total, Club stocks have climbed an average of 0.18% in December since 2013. The best-performing Club stock over the past 10 Decembers is Broadcom (AVGO), which has an average gain of 7.1% in the month. That performance is aided by three Decembers with double-digit percentage gains: up 20.2% in 2021, up 11.3% in 2015, and up 18.2% in 2013. The semiconductor and software firm, which reports earnings after Thursday's close, also has had just two down Decembers over the past decade. In fact, Broadcom is one of only three Club holdings with an 80% positive rate in that timeframe. Cosmetics firm Estee Lauder (EL) and consumer-staples giant Procter & Gamble (PG) are the other two. Over the past 10 Decembers, Estee Lauder has climbed an average of 3% performance-wise — the third best of any Club stock — while P & G has advanced 2.21%. That's good for fifth place. Rounding out the top five recent December winners are drugmaker Eli Lilly (LLY), which occupies second place with a 5.03% gain on average in the month from 2013 onward, and Wynn Resorts (WYNN) at No. 4. The casino operator's average gain in December has been 2.32% over the past decade Eli Lilly has been positive in seven of the past 10 Decembers, while Wynn Resorts has been in the green six times over the same stretch. Salesforce (CRM) is the worst-performing Club stock in December over the past decade, falling 4.53% on average in the month. The enterprise software giant — which last week reported encouraging quarterly results for three months ended Oct. 31 — has registered only one positive December out of the past 10. That came in 2013, when the stock rose 6%. Last year, Salesforce sank 17.3% in December. Ford (F) occupies second-to-last place on our list. The automaker's stock has declined 3.9% on average in the month and has only been positive three times since in the past decade: up 8.2% in 2021, up 2.6% in 2019, and up 1.4% in 2016. Ford's worst December in 10 years came in 2018 — when shares tumbled 18.7% as part of that year's Fed-induced market selloff. Only two Club stocks finished December 2018 in the green: Broadcom, which climbed 7.1%, and Palo Alto Networks (PANW), which advanced 8.9%. Amazon (AMZN), Coterra Energy (CTRA) and Costco (COST) round out the bottom five December performers over the past decade. Amazon has dropped 2.97% on average, while Coterra and Costco have dropped 2.59% and 2.55%, respectively. All three stocks dropped more than 10% in last year's rocky December. There were just five Club holdings to finish December 2022 in the green: Broadcom with a 1.5% gain, Estee Lauder up 5.2%, P & G with a 1.6% gain, Meta up 1.9% and Caterpillar (CAT), which rose 1.3% that year. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. 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Wall Street and Broad St. signs are seen as New York Stock Exchange building decorated for Christmas at the Financial District in New York City, United States on December 16, 2020.

Tayfun Coskun | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

The holiday cheer was nowhere to be found on Wall Street last year: Both December and all of 2022 closed with brutal thuds.

What a difference a year makes: Short of a calamity this December 2023 promises to be a banner year for investors.