UBS sees big market swings and only slight gains for stocks in 2024

Published Tue, Dec 12 20232:15 PM ESTUpdated Tue, Dec 12 20234:01 PM EST

UBS is out with its 2024 outlook, and it expects some wild swings for markets next year. The Wall Street firm on Monday said it sees the S & P 500 ending next year at 4,850, roughly 5% above Monday's close of 4,622.44. For now, investors should stay "bullishly positioned" as stocks will continue to climb, according to UBS Investment Bank chief U.S. equity strategist Jonathan Golub. Stocks have been on a tear recently, with the S & P 500 riding a six-week winning streak. During that time, the broad market index is up around 12%. .SPX YTD mountain SPX in 2023 However, he warned investors to be ready when the data starts to show cracks in the economy. UBS expects a gross domestic product decline in the second or third quarter of 2024. "The large spread between current strength and expected weakness presents a dilemma for investors," Golub wrote Monday. "We recommend remaining constructively positioned until the data deteriorates, with a focus on (1) labor market conditions, (2) credit performance, and (3) profit projections." In fact, Golub expects an ugly double-digit sell-off at some point in 2024. While stocks typically fall six to seven months before a recession, the strategist noted the timeline can range from as soon as zero months to as much as 15 months. "With P/Es 2-3 multiple points below their 2022 highs, and the backdrop strong, we see further upside over the near-term," Golub wrote. "That said, we expect a double-digit drawdown some time in 2024." Still, the strategist is bullish on tech, saying the sector will reaccelerate earnings growth next year and account for roughly 2% to 3% of S & P 500 profit growth. He also recommends health care and communication services. He is neutral on financials, and underweight energy, materials and staples. Other strategists on the Street have also put out their 2024 outlooks. Goldman Sachs' David Kostin said he anticipates the S & P 500 will end next year at 4,700 , just a stone's throw from where the broader index is currently trading. Bank of America's Savita Subramanian put out a rosier forecast at 5,000. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.