It looks like it's going to be both a green and a blue Christmas.
The CNBC All-America Economic Survey finds American views on the economy in a continued slump, echoed in increasingly negative views on President Joe Biden's job approval, and yet holiday spending plans are buoyant.
The survey shows intended holiday spending per person rocketed up to $1,300 this year, 31% above last year. While the number was driven by a small number of respondents saying they will spend large sums, the gains still amount to double digits when those answers are removed. What's more, 18% say they will spend more, up from just 11% last year and the highest since 2019. Among those spending more, 32% say it's because they are being paid more or have higher incomes, up 2 points from last year; 24% say it's because of inflation, down 6 points.
Meanwhile, among those spending less this year, 37% say it's because of inflation, up from 15% last year.
The survey underscores the increasing divide between dour American economic sentiment and upbeat economic data. Multiple surveys have found downbeat economic views but data showing robust consumer spending. Recent reports show surging third-quarter growth, a low unemployment rate and strong holiday spending.
The CNBC Survey found modest improvements in views on the economy, but they remain mostly depressed. Eighty percent view the economy as just fair or poor, down 3 points from the October survey, and 19% say it's excellent or good, up 3 points. But those levels are heavily depressed from the pre-pandemic levels in December 2019 when 53% of the public said the economy was good or excellent.
The outlook also improved a bit, with 24% of the public saying they expect the economy to improve, up from 19% in October, but still down from 30% in 2019. For the full year, the 66% of Americans who are negative about the current state of the economy and the outlook represents an all-time high in the 17 years of the survey.
The survey of 1,002 Americans throughout the country was conducted Dec. 8 through 12 and has a margin of error of +/-3.1%.
Biden approval hits new low
Inflation looks to be driving economic sentiment with 30% of respondents saying it's the No. 1 issue facing the nation, down just 2 points from the high last quarter despite a continued decline in the inflation numbers — a potential sign that Americans are less concerned that prices aren't rising as fast anymore as they are that prices have risen and remain high. Inflation is followed by immigration and border security, chosen by 18% as the leading issue, and foreign policy and national security, which rose 4 points to 12%.
"It's not a mystery,'' said Micah Roberts of Public Opinion Strategies, the Republican pollster for the survey. "People may be spending more, but they're likely getting less. If you're working as hard, spending more and getting less, that is a wheel-spinning, head-imploding kind of experience to have over and over and over again. It just wears people out."
Biden's approval numbers do not fare well in any of the three categories surveyed. His overall approval rate fell to 35%, the lowest CNBC has recorded in his presidency, from 37% in the prior quarter, while his disapproval edged up a point to 59%. At -24, the president's approval is the most underwater it's been during his term. His economic approval numbers are worse. Approval rose a point to 33% and disapproval declined a point to 62%. But they remain more underwater at -29% than his overall approval numbers. On foreign policy, the president's 33%-63% approval and disapproval numbers leave him 34 points underwater, compared with -29 in October.
The result is that former President Donald Trump widened his lead on Biden in the survey in a head-to-head matchup, beating the president 48-42, compared with 46 to 42 in the prior survey. The president looks to be losing support among key constituents who helped put him into the White House in 2020. Among those groups, support for the president has eroded sharply among younger women, independents and Latinos. In fact, the survey showed Latinos favoring Trump by 5 points in the head-to-head matchup. In the prior survey, Latinos favored Biden by 7 points.
"The data show younger women under 50 have really struggled in the post pandemic economy," said Jay Campbell, of Hart Associates, the Democratic pollster for the survey. "And that that's a really important group from a political standpoint for the President and all the data throughout this poll shows that they're not in a great mood."
Another problem for Biden, Democrats do not back the president either overall or on the economy the way Republicans backed Trump when he was in office. Democratic approval of the president on the economy is at 70%, down 10 points from one year ago. Trump's economic approval among Republicans was nearly always near 90%.
The full survey can be viewed here.
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