Deutsche Bank names the stock that'll be the 'last man standing' in autonomous driving

Published Wed, Jan 3 20246:50 PM EST

Mobileye , the Israel-based autonomous vehicle technology company, is becoming the "last man standing" in the race to develop driverless cars, according to Deutsche Bank. The investment bank said that Mobileye's affordable and modular approach to advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) is becoming increasingly attractive compared to competitors struggling with the complexity and high costs of developing true self-driving "robotaxis." "We believe MBLY is fast becoming one of the 'last men standing' in vehicle autonomy, with credible and affordable technology already on the roads, in sharp contrast with large troubles experienced by many of the industry's alternative solutions," said Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner in a note to clients on Dec. 20, 2023. Rosner expects the stock, which trades with the ticker MBLY, to rise by 15% over the next 12 months to $50. MBLY 1Y line Mobileye provides cameras, chips, and software to car manufacturers that power ADAS features like automatic emergency braking. But the company aims to go further up the autonomous vehicle stack with its new "SuperVision" products that enable "hands-off" driving. The investment bank's analyst said Mobileye was a "rare secular growth story" because its technology can find buyers among global automakers seeking to add self-driving capabilities, regardless of their electric vehicle plans. In contrast, Deutsche Bank said the recent shutdown of GM -subsidiary Cruise's robotaxi service in San Francisco was evidence of the "reality of challenging commercialization" for full vehicle autonomy aimed at public deployment. Mobileye itself is taking a stepping-stone approach, using its fast-growing SuperVision business as a bridge to an eventual rollout of fully autonomous "Chauffeur" systems in 2025-2026. The company claims to be in "serious" talks with 10 major automakers about adopting SuperVision, including Ford , Audi, Geely , FAW, and others representing nearly 35% of global auto production. Polestar , an EV car maker previously wholly owned by Volvo Cars , announced plans in August to use Mobileye's "Chauffeur" platform in its latest cars. If secured, these additional customer wins could serve as "large potential positive catalysts" for Mobileye's share price, demonstrating its long-term growth prospects, the analyst says. RBC Capital Markets is also bullish on Mobileye. Tom Narayan, an analyst at RBC, said he has "a high degree of confidence" in his estimate for 1.7 million SuperVision units to be shipped in 2027. Narayan believes the partnership with Volvo could account for over half this amount. Although trimming near-term revenue projections, RBC raised its price target to $54 based on stronger visibility into 2027 and beyond, giving the stock a 25% upside potential. Similarly, Mizuho Securities maintains a bullish view on Mobileye with a $48 price target, indicating an 11% upside. However, the investment bank also cautioned investors on the potential downside risks if rival autonomous vehicle players demonstrate fully self-driving capabilities sooner. Mizuho says slower than expected adoption of advanced driver assistance or full autonomy features could pose challenges for Mobileye. "Overall expectations for growth are high, and we believe technological challenges or slower pace of adoption could be a significant impact to MBLY topline and potentially hindering future growth opportunities," said Mizuho Securities analysts in a note to clients on Jan. 1. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed reporting.