Ukraine war updates: Ukraine says it has destroyed a Russian spy plane and airborne command post; Kyiv says it needs China for any peace process

Ukraine posted a trade deficit of $24.35 billion in the first 11 months of 2023, the statistics service said on Monday.

Exports of goods totaled $32.98 billion from January to November while imports reached $57,33 billion in the same period, the service said in a statement.

-Reuters

The European Union's eastern states are demanding the EU impose import duties on Ukraine grains, citing unfair competition, Hungary's agricultural ministry said on Monday.

The ministry said the farm ministers from Bulgaria, Poland, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia had sent a letter to the European Commission requesting the measures, saying cheaper agricultural products from Ukraine are eating into their export markets.

The five signatories are among six EU member states that produce significantly more wheat and maize than they need, which is key for European food safety and the EU's strategic sovereignty, the ministers said.

"This is why Brussels needs to introduce measures that protect the markets of member states bordering Ukraine while helping them make use of their full export potential," the letter signed by the ministers including Hungary's Farm Minister Istvan Nagy, said.

"One of these [measures] could be introducing import duties on the most sensitive agricultural products."

Ukraine's larger farm sizes make the country's grain exports cheaper and that is pushing EU farmers out of their traditional export markets, the ministers said. Farmers in Bulgaria, Poland, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia "have suffered significant damages" since the EU suspended import quotas and customs on grain from Ukraine last year, they said.

The ministers are also calling on the European Commission, the bloc's executive, to examine in a report whether Ukraine's production guidelines are in line with EU standards.

The complaints were addressed to EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis and Farm Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski.

Grain exports have been a rare source of tension between Kyiv and its EU neighbours as Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia became alternative transit routes for Ukrainian grain to help offset slower exports via Ukraine's Black Sea ports after the Russian invasion in 2022.

— Reuters

The Kremlin said Monday it has no information about two Russian war planes that Ukraine claimed to have shot down.

Ukraine said on Monday it had destroyed a Russian Beriev A-50 spy plane and an Ilyushin Il-22 airborne command post in the Sea of Azov area. If the information is verified, the destruction of costly air force assets would be a blow to Russia.

The Kremlin's Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said he had no information on the incident, however.

"No, there is no information," Peskov said when asked about the alleged strikes, news agency TASS reported.

"Then, after all, this is a topic that concerns the progress of a special military operation." Russia's Ministry of Defense has not commented on Ukraine's claims.

— Holly Ellyatt

Russian and Iranian foreign and defense ministers held telephone calls and are due to sign a major agreement, Russian state news agency RIA reported.

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu spoke to their Iranian counterparts and the defense ministry later announced Moscow and Tehran would sign "a major interstate agreement."

"The parties emphasized their commitment to the fundamental principles of Russian-Iranian relations, including unconditional respect for each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity, which will be confirmed in the major interstate agreement being prepared for signing between the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran," the statement said, RIA reported.

It's unclear what the agreement pertains to. Russia and Iran have grown closer in recent years, particularly since Russia invaded Ukraine and started procuring Iranian-made drones. Russia has not commented on its drone supply, while Tehran has admitted to supplying drones but said it did so before the war.

Russia and Iran have also become more aligned over Middle Eastern affairs, criticizing Israel for its attacks on Palestinian territory and Iran-backed militant group Hamas.

Shoigu noted that Moscow and Tehran are increasing joint efforts "to create an equal multipolar world," the RIA news agency added, saying that both parties had discussed "issues of military and military-technical cooperation and exchanged views on regional security issues."

— Holly Ellyatt

Ukraine said on Monday it had destroyed a Russian Beriev A-50 spy plane and an Ilyushin Il-22 airborne command post in the Sea of Azov area, dealing a blow to Russian military operations in occupied southern Ukraine.

"Ukraine's Air Force destroyed an enemy A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft and an enemy IL-22 air control centre," army chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi wrote on the Telegram messaging app.

"I am grateful to the Air Force for the perfectly planned and executed operation in the Azov Sea region!"

Reuters was unable to verify the statement independently. The Russian defence ministry did not immediately respond to a written request for comment.

The Ukrainian defence ministry valued the A-50 aircraft at $330 million. Kyiv's statements did not say how the planes had been destroyed.

The A-50, which first came into service near the end of the Soviet era, is a large Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft that can scan an area several hundred kilometres across for enemy aircraft, ships and missiles.

Some Russian military bloggers said the downing of the aircraft would be a huge loss for Russia's air force, since there was a limited number of the planes in service.

"It will be another dark day for the Russian Aerospace Forces and Air Defense," wrote Rybar, a blogger with nearly 1.2 million subscribers that supports and provides running commentary on Russia's war in Ukraine.

"There are not many A-50s. And the specialists operating them are generally rare. If an aircraft of this type is hit, the crew will not be able to escape." It was not clear how many A-50s Russia has in service.

— Reuters

A photo and video exhibition showcasing the atrocities of war dominates at the Ukraine House in Davos, Switzerland.

For the third year running, the pop-up dedicated to the war in Ukraine is attracting attention on the promenade of the World Economic Forum's annual summit.

This year, a collaboration with TikTok sees a rolling stream of videos of everyday life in the war-torn country, as captured by Ukrainians and shared under the hashtag #IliveinUA.

"This is life today in Ukraine. Defended against death and terror. Unbreakable," a caption next to the exhibition reads.

Meanwhile, a photo montage documents some of the most devastating moments of the war since it unfolded on Feb. 24, 2022.

A further board highlights an "incomplete map of Russian war crimes in Ukraine" up to Jan. 3, 2024, listing 100,850 war crimes against peace, human security and international legal order. Russia has maintained that it is not committing war crimes in Ukraine.

Ukraine House Davos will throughout the week host a series of panels discussing the ongoing conflict, including the view from Washington as attendees contemplate a potential change in political leadership and waning support for Ukraine ahead of the upcoming U.S. election.

— Karen Gilchrist

The Kremlin poured cold water on Ukraine's attempts to drum up support for its peace proposals at the World Economic Forum, saying nothing could be achieved without Russia.

"This is simply talking for the sake of talking," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said, Reuters reported, when asked by reporters Monday about the discussions on Ukraine at Davos.

"This process cannot be aimed at achieving any specific results for the obvious reason — we are not participating. Without our participation, any discussions are devoid of any prospect of any results."

Ukrainian officials presented Kyiv's 10-point "peace formula" on Sunday at an event co-hosted with Switzerland. Russia was not involved in the conference of national security advisors. Neither was its ally China.

The ongoing war in Ukraine is among the biggest talking points at the WEF event this year. Ukraine has deemed that any talks with Russia are illegal, and Russia has sought to capitalize on this, calling the position "absurd" while saying it is ready for talks with Ukraine.

Ukraine has said it will not talk to Moscow while Russian troops are on its territory.

— Holly Ellyatt

Russian claims that 500,000 military personnel were recruited in 2023 are highly likely to be exaggerated, Britain's Ministry of Defense said Monday.

Referring to comments on Jan. 11 by Russian Deputy Chair of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev, who claimed that 500,000 people had joined the Russian armed forces in 2023, the ministry said it was "highly likely that this figure has been substantially inflated."

Nonetheless, the U.K. noted in its latest intelligence update on X, formerly known as Twitter, that Russia's recruitment strategy has primarily and "disproportionately" focused on impoverished and rural communities in Russia, as well as school-leavers.

"Recent data published by Mediazona and the BBC Russian Service suggests that at least five Russians' born in 2005 have died in the conflict," the ministry noted.

— Holly Ellyatt

Ukraine said it will not accept a stalemate or "frozen conflict" with Russia in which there is no progress toward peace.

"This president, this team, we will never accept any frozen conflict," Ukraine's presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak said Sunday, responding to a question from CNBC's Steve Sedgwick on whether Ukraine was concerned by a lack of progress toward peace.

"We're living in reality," he said, pointing to recent widespread missile and drone attacks launched by Russia over the New Year period.

Yermak said recent trips to the U.S. by Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and talking to the U.S. policymakers, showed the U.S. backed Ukraine's "positive feelings" around the outcome of the war. Yermak said he's confident billions of dollars worth of U.S. and EU funding would be released by Ukraine's allies.

Yermak presented Kyiv's 10-point "peace formula" in Switzerland on Sunday, with Ukraine hoping to bolster support for its cause at the World Economic Forum.

Presenting Ukraine's 10-point "peace formula" in Davos to delegates from 83 countries, Yermak said that China needs to be involved in future talks to end the war with Russia. Neither Russia nor China was involved in Sunday's event.

— Holly Ellyatt

The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are set to cast a long shadow over the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, this week.

Global business and political leaders and officials are expected to focus on the ongoing fighting in Ukraine as it approaches its second anniversary and a political resolution seems a distant prospect.

"Rebuilding Trust" is the main theme of the 54th annual economic forum that runs from Jan. 15-19. Aside from war, global trade, inflation, supply chains and technological change are expected to be high on the agenda.

Perhaps the most heavyweight political figures set to be in attendance are China's second-in-command Li Qiang and French President Emmanuel Macron, who will both give special addresses.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his delegation will also be in attendance, trying to galvanize support for the country at a time when the outlook for ongoing international aid is looking shaky.

Ukraine has opened "Ukraine House Davos" at WEF and will be presenting speakers and events aimed at maintaining a spotlight on the war and Kyiv's needs.

— Holly Ellyatt

The United Nations and its partners on Monday appealed for a combined $4.2 billion from donors to support war-ravaged communities in Ukraine as well as Ukrainian refugees in 2024.

"Hundreds of thousands of children live in communities on the front lines of the war, terrified, traumatized and deprived of their basic needs," said U.N. aid chief Martin Griffiths.

"That fact alone should compel us to do everything we can to bring more humanitarian assistance to Ukraine."

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said that more than 14.6 million people, or 40% of Ukraine's population, will need humanitarian assistance this year due to Russia's full-scale invasion.

More than 3.3 million of the people in need live in front-line communities in the east and the south of the country, including in territories occupied by Russia, access to which remains "significantly impeded", according to OCHA.

As part of the appeal, OCHA is asking for $3.1 billion to help 8.5 million people in dire need of humanitarian aid in 2024. The U.N. refugee agency is seeking $1.1 billion to support 2.3 million Ukrainian refugees and their host communities.

Russia's invasion, launched in February 2022, has forced some 6.3 million people to flee abroad. Four million people, including nearly one million children, remain displaced within the country, according to OCHA.

"Host countries continue to extend protection and include them in society, but many vulnerable refugees still need help," said Filippo Grandi, the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees.

"They shouldn't feel pressed to return because they cannot make ends meet in exile."

— Reuters

Political and military experts stress that most wars end with some kind of diplomacy and negotiations — and an eventual political solution, whether the participants like it or not. But neither Russia nor Ukraine seems to be at a point where a political resolution is palatable.

This is especially true while Ukraine continues to receive international military aid and fighting remains intense in the south and east of the country, where Russian units are deeply entrenched, preventing Ukraine's forces from making significant advances, but also hampering Russian attempts to advance.

"You never want to go to the negotiation table without having the upper hand in a conflict," retired Army Lt. Gen. Stephen Twitty, former deputy commander of the U.S. European Command, told CNBC.

"Because if you go with the upper hand, you're able to dictate and control what comes out of the negotiations. In this case, neither side has the upper hand."

Sam Cranny-Evans, defense analyst at the Royal United Services Institute think tank, told CNBC that "the challenge for Ukraine is to make it seem like Russia cannot achieve its aims militarily and so it comes to any negotiations, if and when they happen, from a position of relative strength."

″[But] if Putin feels like the Russian armed forces can still deliver the political goals that he's set, then there's not a lot of impetus to negotiate, or the mindset that he'll come to negotiations with will be very hard."

Read more on the story here: Ukraine and Russia say they want the war to end. But military and political experts say they're nowhere near peace talks

— Holly Ellyatt

China needs to be involved in talks to end the war with Russia, Ukraine's top representative said after a high-level diplomatic meeting ahead of the World Economic Forum in Switzerland.

Ukraine's presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak said on Sunday it was important that Russian ally China was at the table when Kyiv convenes further meetings on its peace formula.

Zelenskyy is due to arrive in Bern, Switzerland on Monday to meet the President of the Swiss Confederation Viola Amherd.

Swiss Federal Councillor Ignazio Cassis, who attended Sunday's discussions, told an earlier news conference: "We must do everything to end this war."

"China plays a significant role. We must find ways to work with China on this," Cassis said, adding that both Russia and Ukraine were not willing to make concessions.

Zelenskyy is also likely to meet JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon at Davos this week as he tries to seek support to shore up funds for Ukraine, a source familiar with the matter said. Bloomberg News first reported about Zelenskyy's plans to meet Dimon.

— Reuters