Monday's analyst calls: Rivian downgrade, JPMorgan sees strong gains for Lowe's

Published Mon, Feb 12 20245:43 AM ESTUpdated Mon, Feb 12 20248:46 AM EST

(This is CNBC Pro's live coverage of Monday analyst calls and Wall Street chatter. Please refresh every 20-30 minutes to view the latest posts.) An electric vehicle stock and a home improvement giant were in focus Monday among early analyst calls. Barclays lowered its rating on Rivian Automotive to equal weight, citing headwinds for the company ahead. JPMorgan, meanwhile, upgraded Lowe's to overweight on the prospects of lower mortgage rates. Check out the latest calls and chatter below. All times ET. 8:32 a.m.: Morgan Stanley downgrades XPO after stock's recent runup Wall Street may be too optimistic on XPO , according to Morgan Stanley. The bank downgraded XPO to underweight from equal weight on Monday. Analyst Ravi Shanker's biggest concern is that the optimism around XPO's purchase of service centers from bankrupt Yellow Corp "may be inflated." The initial bounce in volumes, pricing and incremental margins across the industry following Yellow' exit has been muted, as has commentary on forward pricing from some peers, he said in a note to clients. Capital expenditures are also accelerating, which means more organic capacity is coming, Shanker said. "Against this backdrop, XPO stock is pricing in near-record revenue growth, near-record margin improvement at a multiple that is nearly double peer historical benchmark valuation – leaving very little room for error, in our view," he said. Shanker also raised his price target to $80 from $75, suggesting nearly 34% downside from Friday's close. Shares are up 38% year to date. — Michelle Fox 8:31 a.m.: Bank of America downgrades Duke Energy as bullish view 'largely played out' Duke Energy shares are trading closer to the appropriate price after a strong run with the bullish thesis now largely played out, according to Bank of America. Julien Dumoulin-Smith downgraded Duke to neutral and slashed the utility's price target by $9 to $96 per share, implying 4.7% upside from Friday's close. "Our positive thesis has largely played out with less to go," Dumoulin-Smith told clients in a Monday note. The analyst said Duke's shares have largely achieved a premium compared to its peers after rising more than 10% since the summer of 2023. "With shares at a 5% premium on Consensus EPS, we do not see enough potential upside to support a Buy thesis," Dumoulin-Smith told clients in a Monday note. — Spencer Kimball 8:16 a.m.: Loop Capital upgrades Corteva, touts growth acceleration in 2025 Corteva's stronger-than-expected 2024 full-year guidance will jumpstart a period of strong growth, according to Loop Capital. The firm upgraded the agricultural chemicals company to buy from hold and increased its price target to $65 from $57. Loop's forecast implies more than 21% upside from Friday's $53.60 close. Shares of Corteva have climbed nearly 12% in 2024. The company beat Wall Street estimates on the top and bottom line in the fourth-quarter at the end of last month. CTVA YTD mountain CTVA year to date "CTVA's relative outperformance versus peers in the Agriculture input space underscores the attractiveness of its seeds business vis-à-vis the crop protection chemicals most competitors are focused on, in our view," Loop managing director Chris Kapsch said. Kapsch added that Corteva could also benefit from a recent regulatory decision that barred the use of weed killer Dicambria, which he says may spur demand for Corteva's Enlist weed control system. — Brian Evans 8:15 a.m.: Bank of America upgrades Marqeta to buy Bank Of America upgraded Marqeta to buy from neutral on Monday, saying the recent pullback in the card issuing technology company is overdone and there are plenty of reasons to buy the stock now. The shares rose 6.5% in premarket trading. Bank of America has a $7 price target on the shares, implying about 21% upside. "[Marqeta] has an enviable combination of near-term visibility (w/75%+ of [total processing volume] now renewed) and longer-term opportunities (ie. credit) that could drive attractive medium-term top-line growth ('25-'26) of ~20%," Bank of America analyst Cassie Chan said in a note Monday. "Coupled with lagging performance of the stock post-Investor Day, this represents an attractive entry point." The company is due to report fourth quarter earnings at the end of February and Bank of America believes they'll be in line with its estimates, Chan said. She also said 20% growth in the medium term seems achievable for Marqeta as key customers like Block, DoorDash and Affirm are all expected to grow revenues between 15% and 20%. And if Marqeta can penetrate just 1% of the U.S. credit opportunity it could yield $46 billion, or 20%, in total processing volume this year. — Tanaya Macheel 7:52 a.m.: UBS upgrades Urban Outfitters to neutral citing strong sales momentum UBS is optimistic on Urban Outfitters ahead of the retailer's earnings out later this month, but thinks the good news is already priced into the stock. Analyst Jay Sole upgraded Urban to neutral from sell and upped his 12-month price target by $20 to $41. That price target suggests shares could decline about 3.6% from the stock's latest close, however. "We upgrade URBN because our earnings growth outlook for the company has improve … URBN has experienced fairly solid momentum with consumers through January, particularly at its Anthropologie and Free People brands," Sole wrote in a Monday note. He said he views Urban's Nuuly business as another earnings contributor for the company in the medium term. Sentiment around the stock is seemingly bullish, Sole added, citing short interest for Urban of 7.9%, below its five-year average of 13.4%. He expects Urban's fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 27 to come out strong. Shares added 1.6% in premarket trading, adding to Urban's 19.2% gains so far this year. — Pia Singh 7:42 a.m.: Citi upgrades PepsiCo to buy, anticipating organic sales growth PepsiCo's shares have a strong set-up, according to Citi Research. Analyst Filippo Falorni upgraded shares to buy from neutral. He also raised his price target by $15 to $195, suggesting the stock could have 16.3% upside. "With a lower/more achievable OSG [organic sales growth] bar and a reset in market expectations, we believe the set-up looks more favorable with PEP's track record of meeting/beating guidance," Falorni wrote in a Monday note. Volumes will likely remain under pressure in the first half of this year, but that is likely reflected in the stock's underperformance and guidance, he said. Pepsi shares have declined about 4.8% over the past 12 months, and are down 1.3% in the new year. The company's fourth-quarter earnings released on Friday beat expectations, but its revenue fell for the first time in about 4 years, partly due to a slowdown in pricing and consumer spending. That's a rare miss on expectations, according to Falorni. — Pia Singh 6:42 a.m.: Hershey downgraded by Morgan Stanley on softer demand, soaring cocoa prices Morgan Stanley downgraded Hershey to underweight from equal weight, citing softer demand and steepening cocoa inflation. "We are cautious on HSY's midterm outlook given outsized cocoa inflation, a tougher pricing environment & weaker consumer demand for confectionery & popcorn," analyst Pamela Kaufman wrote. Kaufman's $183 price target indicates roughly 6.3% downside for shares, which have fallen more than 18% over the past year. Hershey's disappointing fourth-quarter results and 2024 guidance are a key factor behind Kaufman's downgrade. Looking to next year, the analyst added that an additional 40% rise in cocoa prices year-to-date will likely weigh on Hershey's gross margins and earnings per share growth, and therefore valuation. In the long run, Kaufman also pointed to Hershey having among the greatest exposure to GLP-1 adoption in the firm's coverage, further weighing on the company's growth potential. — Pia Singh 6:21 a.m.: GE Healthcare Technologies is no longer at near-term risk, according to UBS GE Healthcare Technologies is in store for more bullish margin expansion than UBS expected, the firm said in a Monday note. Analyst Graham Doyle raised his price target by $22 to $88, which indicates shares could gain 8.2% over the next 12 months. The stock has added 5.2% year to date. "We believed that a lack of margin expansion near-term would drive a higher degree of investor skepticism on the mid-term margin targets at GEHC, which in turn could drive a de-rating," Doyle wrote. "However, at the full year 2023 results, management provided credible margin guidance implying 50-80bp of expansion despite limited revenue growth, with improved mix and crucially cost savings driving this." Doyle forecasted a 4.7% revenue CAGR between 2024 and 2028, driven by continued share gains in the company's ultrasound and patient care businesses. — Pia Singh 5:52 a.m.: Piper Sandler upgrades Teva Pharmaceutical to overweight It's time to pick up shares of Teva Pharmaceutical , Piper Sandler said. Analyst David Amsellem U.S.-listed upgraded shares to overweight from neutral and raised his price target by $7 to $19, indicating 58% potential upside. The stock —which has rallied more than 15% this year — climbed 2.75% in premarket trading Monday. According to Amsellem, Teva's shares are "well-positioned" for multiple recovery and expansion, due to: The company's neuroscience business, led by the Austedo franchise, can drive longer-term EBITDA stability Teva's U.S. generics/biosimilars business that is better-positioned for muted pressure, Amsellam said, noting that the company's roughly 13 generic product launches between 2024 and 2025 should drive stability Teva's improving capital structure "All told, we believe that growing contribution from the brand portfolio, coupled with relative stability from U.S. generics, ultimately points to high visibility into longer-term EBITDA stability at a minimum," Amsellam wrote in a Sunday note. — Pia Singh 5:43 a.m.: Buy Lowe's ahead of mortgage rates decline, JPMorgan says The Federal Reserve is expected to start easing monetary policy later this year, which could lead to lower mortgage rates — boosting Lowe's , according to JPMorgan. Analyst Christopher Horvers upgraded the home improvement giant to overweight from neutral. The analyst also raised his price target on the stock to $265 from $210, implying upside of 19.2%. "The market is pricing in 150 bps in rate cuts by this time next year, which suggests mortgage rates fall to ~5.5% by Jan 2025, with levels implied near 6% by September 2024," Horvers wrote. "The last time mortgage rates were at 5.5%, single family [existing home sales] trended at ~4.3MM homes, which would represent a > 20% growth rate from recent levels." Lowe's shares have struggled in 2024, losing 0.1%, while the S & P 500 has climbed 5.4% to record levels. LOW .SPX YTD mountain LOW vs SPX in 2024 — Fred Imbert 5:43 a.m.: Barclays downgrades Rivian Automotive amid broader EV market slowdown Supply constraints are just one near-term headwind for Rivian Automotive , according to Barclays. Analyst Dan Levy downgraded shares to equal weight from overweight. He also lowered his price target by $9 to $16, suggesting just over 4% upside from the stock's latest close at $16.68.Levy listed three key issues currently facing Rivian: The company offers a "great" product and technology, but that's not enough to avoid increased signs of demand pressure amid broader electric vehicle slowdown Softer demand implies a profit risk, with slower volume growth making it harder for the company to achieve positive margins and cash flow Rivian's ongoing need for capital raises "The consequences of weak demand are significant. Not only does it mean that the volume outlook is challenged, but it also presents potential pricing risk – with both points reinforcing RIVN is likely to miss its 2024 target of reaching gross margin profitability," Levy wrote in a Monday note. "Moreover, with ongoing capital needs given preparation for the high volume R2 in 2026, we see future pressure." Still, Levy's equal weight rating relies on his belief that Rivian is well-positioned to take "solid share" in the North American EV market, allowing for greater long-term upside. — Pia Singh