Metals

Cooling Fed rate-cut bets pin gold below $2,000 level, palladium jumps

An employee handles one kilogram gold bullion at the YLG Bullion International Co. headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, on Friday, Dec. 22, 2023.
Chalinee Thirasupa | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Gold prices extended their dip and traded below the key $2,000-per-ounce level on Wednesday, a day after hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data prompted investors to lower bets for early Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, while palladium jumped over 7%.

Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,991.09 per ounce — its lowest price since Dec. 13. Bullion fell about 1.4% on Tuesday.

"Gold is trading lower on the heat of the CPI data. It's going to be hard for gold to rally because part of its rally north of $2,000 was on the expectation of Fed rate cuts coming sooner," said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

The catalyst for gold to trend even lower would be more confirmation that the Fed might not be able to cut rates soon, he added.

Data on Tuesday showed U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in January, at a 3.1% annual rise, above economists' forecast in a Reuters poll for a 2.9% increase.

Traders now see three 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2024, down from four, in line with the Fed's "dot plot" released in December. The U.S. central bank may wait until June before cutting rates.

Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion.

Investors will now focus on U.S. retail sales and producer price index data due to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. At least five Fed officials are due to speak this week.

Spot palladium jumped 7.4% to $927.50 and platinum rose 2.2% to $890.71. Earlier this month, palladium prices had fallen below those of sister metal platinum for the first time since April 2018.

"Physical consumers are likely buying palladium on dips as prices have been trending lower for the last several months," said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities.

Silver gained 1.3% to $22.36.

A break below current levels could trigger further declines in silver, while a rebound would help solidify technical support at $22, Kinesis Money said in a note.