Coterra's smart pivot to oil from natural gas leads to an excellent first quarter and sweeter outlook

Published Thu, May 2 20246:41 PM EDT

Coterra Energy topped Wall Street expectations Thursday with first-quarter results that further proved the Club holding's nimble production strategy is the right one for shareholders. Revenue in the three months ended March 31 fell 19% year over year to $1.43 billion, beating the consensus forecast of $1.39 billion, according to analyst estimates compiled by LSEG. Adjusted diluted earnings per share fell 41% versus the year-ago period to 51 cents, but still exceeded expectations of 41 cents, LSEG data showed. Coterra Energy Why we own it: Formed by the merger of Cabot Oil & Gas and Cimarex, Coterra Energy is an exploration-and-production company with a high-quality, diversified asset portfolio. The company practices capital discipline and is a low-cost operator. It's committed to returning 50% or greater of annual free cash flow to shareholders. Our lone energy stock, Coterra also acts as a hedge on inflation and geopolitical risk. Competitors: EQT Corp ., Devon Energy , Marathon Oil Last buy: April 16, 2024 Initiation: April 14, 2022 Bottom line Coterra delivered a strong first quarter, fueled by clean execution. Getting more out of the ground without necessarily spending more is what makes energy producers capital efficient. Coterra provided exactly what we wanted in the January-to-March period: production above the midpoint of guidance, oil production above the high end and capital expenditures below the low end. In addition, we were pleased to see Coterra raise its full-year oil production outlook without moving its capex guidance. This momentum is the result of CEO Tom Jorden's decision three months ago to shift its production strategy to focus on oil and liquid-rich plays away from natural gas, a prudent decision given the current economics of the two commodities. Since the start of the year, U.S. oil benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude has rallied more than 10% while natural gas prices have fallen 20%. Coterra's mix of oil and natural gas acreage gives it the flexibility to adjust its drilling focus. It's something we've longed touted as an attractive feature of the company. Shares of Coterra — which will hold its post-earnings conference call Friday morning — rose more than 2% in extended trading Thursday, to around $27.80 each. Following the report, we're reiterating our buy-equivalent 1 rating on Coterra shares and a price target of $30. Capital allocation Coterra returned a total of $307 million to shareholders in the first quarter, with $157 million in declared dividends and $150 million coming from share repurchases. That buyback was an increase from the $29 million in repurchased in the fourth quarter of 2023. At the end of March, the Houston-based company had $1.4 billion remaining under its previous $2 billion authorization. Guidance Coterra largely maintained its capital-efficient outlook for 2024 — with a notable tweak that makes it even sweeter. The company reiterated its full-year capital expenditure outlook of $1.75 billion to $1.95 billion but raised its oil production guidance to 102 to 107 thousand barrels of oil per day (MBopd), an increase of 2.5% at the midpoint versus prior guidance. This is capital efficient because capex is down 12% year over year at the midpoint — driven by cost reductions, deflation and lower activity in the Marcellus Shale — and yet its barrel of oil equivalent production is expected to be roughly flat, with 9% higher oil volumes. For the second quarter, Coterra expects total equivalent production of 624 to 655 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoepd); oil production of 103 to 107 MBopd; natural gas production of 2,600 to 2,7000 million cubic feet per day; and capital expenditures of $470 million to $550 million. The total production guide is a little lighter than the 668 MBoepd expected, according to Factset. However, the oil guide was higher and natural gas production was lighter than anticipated. We'll gladly take the more oily mix given the more favorable economics it currently has. The capex guide is elevated relative to Wall Street estimates, but combined spending over the first two quarters of the year is line. (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long CTRA. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

Permian Basin rigs in 2020, when U.S. crude oil production dropped by 3 million a day as Wall Street pressure forced cuts.

Paul Ratje | Afp | Getty Images

Coterra Energy topped Wall Street expectations Thursday with first-quarter results that further proved the Club holding's nimble production strategy is the right one for shareholders.