NORDIC POWER-Spot seen to firm over 40 euros/MWh

* Nordic spot price for Thursday seen at 41 euros/MWh

* Forwards fall on easing carbon, fuel prices

OSLO, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Nordic spot power prices were expected to rise to above 40 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh) on lower wind output and higher consumption, analysts at Point Carbon said on Wednesday.

The Nordic average day-ahead power price


Thursday delivery is expected to firm to 41.0 euros per MWh, compared with 38.4 euros on Wednesday.

Spot price was last above 40 euros a MWh in mid-April.

Combined windpower output in Denmark and Sweden was forecast to fall from 1,600 on Wednesday to just 490 MW on Thursday, and falling temperatures were to boost consumption by 600 MW.

Germany spot power price for Thursday is expected to fall to 50 euros a MWh from 51.5 euros on Wednesday, analysts said.

"During the day time there is still a big difference in Nordic and German prices, but we have lately rather similar prices during night time," a Point Carbon analyst added.

Price difference makes profitable to export cheaper hydro power from the Nordic market to Germany, which relies more on coal and gas to generate power.


Nordic forward prices fell on Wednesday after rising for the last three sessions in a row as some market players took an opportunity to cash in the gains, while bearish fuel markets weighted on the longer-term contracts.

The contract for baseload (24 hours) power delivery in the first quarter

eased by 40 cents to 42.50 euros per MWh by 0930 GMT, compared with Tuesday's close.

"Some market players think that the contract has reached good levels to sell, and I think it can continue to fall a bit more," a Sweden-based trader said.

"We estimate the marginal costs for coal power production in the first quarter to be at 37.7 euros a MWh, and the contract is trading well above that now," he added.

The latest weather forecasts see slightly more rain than previously seen, but precipitation levels in Norway and Sweden are still expected to be 2 terawatt-hours (TWh) below normal.

The Nordic region relies on hydroelectric power for more than 50 percent of its power generation, and change in precipitation is an important factor in setting prices.

The Nordic contract for baseload power delivery next year

traded lower by 25 cents to 38.15 euros per MWh, in step with falling coal and carbon prices.

"The front-year prices eased due to falling carbon emissions and fuels," the trader said.

Coal API2 2013 futures were down by 35 cents to $97 a tonne, while European carbon prices slipped by 13 cents to 7.76 euros a tonne.

European carbon dropped by one percent on Tuesday as European nations prepared to dump almost 5 million permits into the market in a three-day burst of selling starting Wednesday.

Brent crude slipped below $114 a barrel on Wednesday morning on increasing evidence of slowing global economic growth.

(Reporting by Nerijus Adomaitis; editing by James Jukwey)

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