"Gold became India's largest dollar import last year, superseding oil for the first time," said James Steel, chief metals analyst at HSBC. "As the current account balances deteriorated and the deficit became greater, I think the finance ministry has targeted gold, and earlier in the year they raised import taxes in an effort to limit the amount of gold coming into the country."
(Read More: Gold Ends at $1,397 on India Demand Concern)
Steel said the Indian wedding season, which ends in July, has been strong and that China will now provide some of the demand for gold that might have gone to India.
"It won't reduce the imports to zero, but we have to gauge what impact this is going to have," he said. "The drop in prices had a big impact in India in April. The rupee was enormously weak last year, so even though gold was down from its highs in dollar terms, it reached its all-time high in rupee terms last year."
The actively trade August contract for gold hit a low of $1,388 on Tuesday before recovering.
Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options, said gold's decline is not just about lower demand. "It's the gyrations in the dollar every day, and gold is not breaking any technical levels on the upside," he said. "I just can't get psyched about gold until we break those levels—$1,535 is where I start getting bullish on gold again."