Credit concerns around the globe have left few sectors untouched by a recent flight to quality, and this holds true for commodities-related stocks, which have seen outsized losses relative to the broader market as investors have been quick to book profits after hefty advances.
"As these highly leveraged hedge funds have had to sell stuff out into the market, they've had to sell their best stuff," says Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial. "That's really important because it means these are good companies with good cash on their balance sheets, they've got good prospects for profit going forward and they're a buying opportunity more than ever."
Fundamentals don't change overnight or over a few weeks, assert market analysts, and now could be the right time to start building positions in some of the best-performing sectors of the last two years. There's some concern, however, that this market event may be different, given the uncertainty regarding the extreme leverage used by some hedge funds and even big banks such as Goldman Sachs .
Commodities Boom or Bust?
"We still believe that we're in a period of globalization and industrialization that's taking place on an unprecedented scale and that's going to be positive for commodities and raw materials going forward," says Brian Hicks, co-portfolio manager at U.S. Global Investors.
"We've been tested several times during this bull market cycle where we've seen 10% to 20% corrections but we've rebounded every time."
Donald Coxe of BMO Financial says companies in the energy sector, base metal producers, precious metals miners, and food companies focusing on grain should continue to benefit from a long-term bull market for commodities.
"Invest in scarcity rather than what's created on Wall Street's computers," says Coxe.
William Rutherford, president of Rutherford Investment Management, says he remains steadfast in his positive outlook on energy stocks, which have been a long-term portion of his holdings for quite some time.
"I like energy services in particular because with all the money the energy companies are making they need more reserves, they need more exploration and they need to service what they have," Rutherford says.
Steel And Coal
"I would be putting cash to work in those stocks," he says. There's less vulnerability in the steel stocks."
U.S. Steel and Nucor look cheap on a valuation basis, he says, and are currently valued at less than nine times the cash held on their balance sheets, while Carpenter Technology, a specialty play on metals technology, is selling at just four times the cash on its balance sheet.
For copper producers and other base metals-focused companies, says Larkin, it may be a little too early. Southern Peru Copper and Freeport-McMoRan have both seen declines of more than 20% since hitting new all-time highs on July 23.
"I think copper has been a little bit overextended this entire year," he said. "Demand is up in China but it's been down in the U.S. and demand will not recover meaningfully until 2009."
Brian Kabot, a trader with Sun Capital Partners, likes coal companies and is focusing on , the largest U.S. exporter of metallurgical coal.
"If you're bullish on the global steel cycle and near-term energy needs, Alpha Natural Resources trades at 60% of its net asset value which is a significant discount to its peers and they have the top management in the industry," said Kabot. "So that's one place we're putting our money."