How can you make sense of charts in a market as wild as this one? We ask Louise Yamada, esteemed market technician and founder of the aptly named Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors. Following is a summary of her main points.
Chart: S&P 500, 1993-2008, with 20-month moving average.
Editorial: It looks as if we're in the midst of a structural sell-off, Yamada says the likes of which we haven't seen since 2000. We could be in for an extended bear market period – and it could be global. Sell any rally, she counsels.
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Chart: Monthly Relative Performance of S&P Consumer Staples, 1998-2008.
Editorial: If you must be in the market, consumer staples appear to be holding up, Yamada says, and should continue to do so. However this doesn’t mean the prices can’t come down – it just suggests the prices should come down, less.
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Chart:Monthly Relative Performance of S&P Financials, 1996-2008.
Editorial: This chart suggests that financials are falling apart, observes Yamada, and that they could continue to deteriorate. Sell the strength.
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Conclusion: Better to be out of the market right now wishing you were in.. than in the market wishing you were out.
