$150 By The Fourth?

The way crude trades these days it almost feels like there should be a carnival barker urging you to quickly place your bets! On Friday crude reached a record high for the second straight day, jumping up to $142.99 a barrel. However earlier this same week prices fell as much as $5 on a government inventories report.

Up… down… left… right? Oil bulls are quick remind that Morgan Stanley analyst Ole Slorer predicted that oil would hit $150 by July 4th. (He made the call the first week of June.) And Goldman Sachs has said oil could go as high as $200 before it settles.

If oil goes higher next week how should you trade?

I’ve been playing the expiration trade, explains Joe Terranova. If oil prices climb toward $150 the week of July 4th I’d go into the refiners.

Why?

Because if that scenario unfolds, in the second week of July I would expect a pullback in oil and that pull back would benefit refiners' margins.

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Trader disclosure: On June 27, 2008, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (BTU), (NUE), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT); Pete Najarian Owns (ANR), (TSO), (XLF); Pete Najarian Owns (AAPL) Calls, (EK) Calls, (QID) Calls, (RIMM) Calls, (YHOO) Calls, (WLT) Calls; Pete Najarian Owns (HRB) Puts, (MER) Puts, (HBC) Puts; Finerman Owns (GS); Finerman's Firm Owns (MSFT), (NYX), (SUN), (TSO), (MRK), (PPH); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (C) And (C) Leaps; Finerman's Firm Is Short (SPY), (IYR), (IJR), (MDY), (IWM); Finerman's Firm Is Short SPX Index Puts; Finerman's Firm Owns (VLO) And (VLO) Call Spreads; Terranova Owns (BNI), (CME), (FXC), (LUV), (GOOG), (FCX), (INTC), (IYT), (XLF), (SU), (YHOO); Terranova Owns Dollar Index Futures

Terranova is chief alternatives strategist at Phoenix Investment Partners;; Phoenix Investment Partners Ltd. Owns (RWX), (DBC), (DBV), (IGE), (AAI), (ALK), (AMR,) (APA), BP plc, British Airways plc, (CHK), (CVX), (COP), (CAL), (DAL), ENI SPA, (XOM), Gazprom, (HA), (HES), (HOC), (HSE), (JBLU), Lukoil, (MRO), (MUR), (OXY), Petrobras Intl Fin, Petro-Canada, (PBR), Petroleos De Venezuela, (QAN), (RJET), Royal Dutch Shell plc A Shares, (SKYW), (LUV,) (SU), (TSO), Texaco Capital, Total SA, (UAUA), (LCC), (VLO)