I just knew that when I wrote that last post aboutsome on the Street growing tired of Apple, that it would lead to a few responses from some of you. Well, I was right.
First, full disclosure: those making a market in Appleminute to minute, or even day to day, run the risk of missing a true opportunity. Longer term--meaning a year or more down the road--I think it's safe to say there's a very good chance that Apple will be higher than it is today. Hype and hope aside, this is a company with an equally firm hand on innovation, and a close eye on fiscal responsibility. That's a powerful, one-two punch that only gains more momentum when you consider how well Macs, iPods and iPhones continue to sell in the marketplace.
That said, don't hate me, or flame me, because I suggested Apple is having trouble maintaining hype at 9,000 RPMs. That's difficult even for the 12-cylinder engine that is Apple Inc. To wit, enough of my thoughts; here are some of yours. And there's been a flood of them:
"Jim, you are very sad. Apple will be ok," from Liv.
"Apple stock is constantly manipulated by hedge funds and mutual funds," writes Dan Shelburne. "They have mainly been on the short side. This was short-selling today. They are betting that news tomorrow will not be significant. If Apple really announces something good, the short covering will make for a massive rally. This stock moves on open interest in the call/put options more than fundamentals. Real investors won't have a chance until the stock is split to a lower multiple."
(I agree, Dan, but don't hold your breath on that split.)
Kurt Musselman wouldn't call this "fatigue," but says instead: "If Apple were the only one of the big tech names being dumped, then I'd understand and agree with what you are trying to say. But how does Apple then affect RIMM, Google, Baidu? It looks more like technical rotation or dumping of tech in general than a company specific event. At the same time, it could very easily be a dump and scoop tactic employed by big traders: dump the stock before a big event, so that you create a panic and anticipation going into the event, then buy it back quite a bit lower just in time for the run-up in the Christmas season (has worked like a charm the last three years, especially last year, where Apple went from $192 to $150 in three trading days in October."
(Great point. But are you suggesting some kind of coordinated manipulation? --kidding)
Ray writes in: "RIM requires a special server to perform push email, Apple doesn't. That alone will save companies lots of money. What else? The iPhone is an iPod, GPS, game machine and a great mini-PC."
Ken Hamermesh says, "Don't really know and actually do not really care about the short term (am a long term investor) though it is nice to add up the paper profits. Agree with your final assessment about Apple being better positioned than any other company to take advantage of the digital revolution. Short term investors/traders: I feel sorry for them because the rhyme and reason has left the stock for the time being."
Harry Wolf writes, "I am a raving Apple fan, but your article was very good. Hype is impossible to maintain, so perhaps it might be a good thing if Apple quietly got on with the job and canned the Super-Hype PR machine for a while. Sales are good, numbers will continue to rise - hey, maybe Apple will become a 'normal' excellent stock for a while? And I agree about Steve Jobs - like it or not, he is one in a billion, and any company with a guy as smart as this would struggle to replace him. Maybe we aren't making people like Steve Jobs anymore? I hope not. The next Apple CEO can come from anywhere, he just has to have that certain iconoclastic vision and tough intelligence. Lets hope the real Steve Jobs can keep going for another decade or two."
(Or three decades or more? The guy's only 53!)
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