John Kilduff, SVP and Co-Head of MF Global, told me that the crack spread is unbelievably negative, hovering right now at negative $7. "Historically, that number should be between positive $5-6," explained Kilduff. "Gasoline prices are way ahead of crude right now. At comparable levels, we project oil at about $46 / bbl," adds Kilduff.
Looking at retail gasoline prices, you get similar results. Below are two charts: one showing the national average price of retail gas / gallon (per the EIA) and crude oil, the second shows the relative price of one to the other in $/bbl. Over the past 10 years, the trend slopes downward, showing that gas has fallen faster than oil. The last time oil was near $50 /bbl, retail gas was about 10 cents more per gallon than it is today.