Currency Trading Update - 11/26/08

While many of the same contestants are holding on to the top 5 spots, it is clear that the race is heating up. Indeed, contestant number 1 has held their own by trading GBP/JPY on a very short-term basis during all hours of the day. However, Tuesday proved to be a less-than-great day, as this trader's currency portfolio balance actually slipped down to $297,348.13 by Tuesday's close from $329,723.13. Contestant number 2 is catching up though with a very different strategy, as he has only executed three trades since the start of the contest, keeping them open for 11 hours up to four days. While this trader is floating losses of roughly $15,000 on two other trades at the time of writing, trades in GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, and EUR/USD have netted him approximately $180,000 in profits to bring his currency portfolio up to $279,920.98.
Looking at these two contestants, it's clear that there are many different profitable strategies you can use, and it's just a matter of practicing and finding out which ones work best for you.
This will be the last post until next Monday since trading should be pretty light through the Thanksgiving holiday. Trading in the Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge will only be open for limited hours, but here's an indicator that may be worth watching on Friday, since it could impact interest rate expectations for the European Central Bank and thus, the Euro:

European Trading Session
11/28, 5:00 ET
Eurostat estimates for Euro-zone CPI are projected to show at 5:00 ET that inflation growth eased to a 2.4 percent pace in November from 3.2 percent. Given European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet’s more bearish stance on economic growth and the bank’s participation in the October 8 coordinated rate cuts and their November 6 reduction during a scheduled meeting, a weaker-than-expected CPI reading could exacerbate the market’s speculation that the central bank will cut rates again soon. We also have to consider that the Euro-zone unemployment rate will also be released at the same time and is forecasted to edge up to 7.6 percent. Considering the dismal conditions plaguing the region’s economies, there is a risk that the unemployment rate will climb even higher, and combined with a drop in CPI, the euro could plunge. On the other hand, readings in line with forecasts could allow the currency to brush the news off.

Terri Belkas
Currency Strategist
Forex Capital Markets LLC
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