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Cinco de Mayo & the U.S. Markets

Historically and on average, the U.S. Markets have been relatively positive on Cinco de Mayo, a regional holiday in Mexico that is celebrated by many Americans. There is much to cheer about as the Nasdaq Composite has been up 67% of the time, the S&P 500 has closed positive 60% of the time, and the Dow has been up 55% of the time during Cinco the Mayos past.

Dow since 1897: (80 Occurrences)

  • On average the Dow has gained 0.12% on Cinco de Mayo
    • Up 55% of the time, avg gains of 0.71% when up during Cinco de Mayo
    • Down 41% of the time, avg loss of -0.65% when down during Cinco de Mayo
    • Finished flat 4% of the time on 1914, 1922, and 1982
  • The best Cinco de Mayo was on 1905, when the Dow finished up 2.87%
  • The worst Cinco de Mayo was on 1915, when the Dow finished down -2.95%

S&P since 1928: (57 Occurrences)

  • On average the S&P has gained 0.15% on Cinco de Mayo
    • Up 60% of the time, avg gains of 0.61% when up during Cinco de Mayo
    • Down 39% of the time, avg loss of -0.56% when down during Cinco de Mayo
    • Finished flat only once, on 1931
  • The best Cinco de Mayo was on 1997, when the S&P finished up 2.12%
  • The worst Cinco de Mayo was on 1930, when the S&P finished down -2.8%

Nasdaq Composite since 1971: (27 Occurrences)

  • On average the NASDAQ has gained 0.49% on Cinco de Mayo
    • Up 67% of the time, avg gains of 0.91% when up during Cinco de Mayo
    • Down 30% of the time, avg loss of -0.39% when down during Cinco de Mayo
    • Finished flat only once on 1976
  • The best Cinco de Mayo was on 1997, when the Nasdaq finished up 2.6%
  • The worst Cinco de Mayo was on 1981, when the Nasdaq finished down -0.83%

Now that the S&P closed above 900 and has entered into positive territory for the year, up 0.44% YTD as of 5/4 here are the S&P’s best performers year to date:

• XL Capital (XL) , up ~185% YTD
• Sprint Nextel (S), up ~175% YTD
• Ford (F) , up ~147% YTD
• SunMicro Systems (JAVA) , up ~139% YTD
• Whole Foods (WFMI) , up ~137% YTD

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