Historically and on average, the U.S Markets have been up on the day before Independence Day and relatively flat the day after. The S&P has averaged best of the major indices on the day before the July 4th holiday is observed, up an average of .5% and up 70% of the time.
UPDATE >> As of midday, all the indices are down over 2%, putting us on track for the worst start to the July 4th holiday ever!
Here is a look at the major indices before and after the fireworks go off...
Dow (Since 1900):
- The day before Independence Day, an average gain of 0.39%, Best of 5.74% in 1933, Worst -1.28% in 1991.
- The day after Independence Day, an average gain of 0.02%, Best of 3.58% in 2002, Worst -4.5% in 1931.
- One week after Independence Day, an average gain of 0.19%, Best of 4.12% in 1934, Worst -6.79% in 1931.
- One month after Independence Day, an average gain of ~1%, Best of 34.3% in 1932, Worst -15.01% in 1903.
- From Independence Day to Labor Day, an average gain of 2.1%, Best of 72.9% in 1932, Worst -15.97% in 1998.
S&P 500 (Since 1928):
- The day before Independence Day, an average gain of 0.46%, Best of 4.58% in 1933, Worst -1.10% in 1991.
- The day after Independence Day, an average gain of 0.05%, Best of 3.67% in 2002, Worst -3.91% in 1931.
- One week after Independence Day, an average gain of 0.50%, Best of 4.52% in 1937, Worst -5.3% in 1931.
- One Month after Independence Day, an average gain of 0.83%, Best of 41.7% in 1932, Worst -11.2% in 1933.
- From Independence Day to Labor Day, an average gain of 2.02%, Best of 92.2% in 1932, Worst -15.85% in 1998.
Nasdaq Composite (Since 1971):
- The day before Independence Day, an average gain of 0.12%, Best of 1.65% in 2002, Worst -0.99% in 1992.
- The day after Independence Day, an average loss of -0.18%, Best of 4.94% in 2002, Worst -3.23% in 2000.
- One week after Independence Day, an average gain of 0.08%, Best of 4.24% in 2003, Worst -7.88% in 2001.
- One Month after Independence Day, an average loss of -0.6 %, Best of 9.4% in 1997, Worst -10.8% in 1986.
- From Independence Day to Labor Day, an average gain of 0.51%, Best of 12.84% in 1980, Worst -17.96% in 1998.
On the disappointing jobs numbersthis morning, the futures are down so we may not see the fireworks we would hope for on this day before the holiday. In the pre-market, 3M, Alcoa , Kraft , Travelers and Bank of America were leading the Dow to the downside.
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