How Much Is Left In This Rally?

With the Dow breaking above 9,000 on Thursday and the S&P 500 at its highest level for 2009, how much is left in this rally?

No doubt about it, there’s euphoria in the market. On Thursday the Nasdaq closed in positive territory for the 12th consecutive day – it’s longest winning streak since 1992.

And since the March lows the S&P has gained more than 40%. Is this the top? We asked Oppenheimer chief market strategist Carter Worth.


Worth says patterns in the charts suggest the Nasdaq should go higher in the short-term to 2100. “But I’d be a seller there,” he says.

Of course this doesn't take into account the weakness stemming from disappointing earnings from Microsoft and Amazon in the after hours. Although they're both drivers of the Nasdaq, Carter Worth reminds the after hours selloff only take these stocks to the levels where they were trading on Monday.

Meanwhile, patterns suggest the Dow does not have any room to run “There’s not a lot of upside. It’s trading at the top of a range and I’d sell here,” he counsels.

To see Carter Worth's complete analysis please watch the video.


On the Fast Money Halftime Report we posed a similar question. We asked the traders, with so much euphoria in the market should you position for the next leg higher or the end of the line?

Following is a recap of that conversation:

I truly believe this is a breakout in the market, said Joe Terranova.

The options traders are saying the same thing as Joe, explained Brian Stutland of Stutland Equities. They’re definitely playing a breakout to the upside. All week I’ve seen upside call buying in the S&P options. I think the next stop could be 1000 on the S&P.

I’m concerned, countered OptionMonster Jon Najarian. When we get to big numbers like 9,000 on the Dow investors start to switch over and start protecting their gains. I’m seeing a higher volume of call selling and put buying.

I expect we'll soon see money start flowing into safer areas of the market, added Patty Edwards of Storehouse. Yes we have a breakout but I don’t think we have the earnings power to support it. I expect to see a cold shock of reality follow this euphoria.

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Trader disclosure: On July 23rd, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Terranova Owns (MCD), (AXP), (AMZN), (MSFT), (QCOM), (SUN), (FTO), (SU), (GS), (APA), (GOOG), (IBM), (INTC), (XBI), (BNI); Finerman Owns (RIG); Finerman's Firm Owns (MSFT), (NOK), (PBR), (RIG), (WMT); Finerman's Firm Is Short (USO), (IJR), (IYR), (IWM), (MDY), (SPY); Finerman's Firm Owns (WFMI) Calls; Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (BAC) Preferred Shares; Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (WFC) Preferred Shares, Finerman's Firm Is Short (WFC); Grasso Owns (BAC), (BA), (COST), (CSCO), (V), (WMT), (CLF); Grasso's Company Owns (ABT), (MSFT), (GERN), (NYX), (XOM), (SDS); Grasso's Company Is Short (QQQQ) with wires