WHEN: TODAY, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 8TH
WHERE: CNBC'S "SQUAWK BOX"
Following are excerpts from the unofficial transcript of James Bullard, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President, on CNBC's "Squawk Box" today.
All references must be sourced to CNBC.
BULLARD ON A DOUBLE DIP RECESSION
BULLARD: "THE BIG ISSUE OF COURSE HAS BEEN THIS SOFT PATCH DURING THE SUMMER AND DURING THE FALL HERE, I DO THINK THAT THE RISK OF DOUBLE DIP RECESSION HAS RECEDED SOME DURING THESE PAST 6-8 WEEKS HERE, AND SO I DIDN'T THINK THAT IS WHAT WE WERE GOING TO SEE BEFORE BUT I DON'T THINK THAT IS WHAT WE ARE GOING TO SEE."
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BULLARD ON FED DECISION
BULLARD: "THE ECONOMY HAS SLOWED BUT IT HASN'T SLOWED SO MUCH THAT IT IS AN OBVIOUS CASE TO DO SOMETHING IT WOULD BE A VERY REASONABLE DECISION TO SAY 'HEY MAYBE WE SHOULD JUST PUSH IT OFF A MEETING OR 2 AND SEE HOW THE DATA COMES IN' THAT IS A VERY REASONABLE POINT OF VIEW."
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BULLARD ON A BIG SHOCK TO THE ECONOMY
BULLARD: "YOU HAVE A BIG SHOCK TO THE ECONOMY WHAT DO YOU EXPECT TO HAPPEN 'OH UNEMPLOYMENT IS GOING TO GO UP AND INFLATION IS GOING TO GO BELOW THE IMPLICIT TARGET AND IT IS GOING TO TAKE A LONG TIME TO COME BACK BECAUSE IT WAS A REALLY BIG SHOCK' SO JUST POINTING OUT THAT UNEMPLOYMENT IS HIGH AND INFLATION IS LOW IS NOT ENOUGH, THAT WOULD BE THE CASE EVEN IF YOU WERE RUNNING AN OPTIMAL POLICY."
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BULLARD ON QE2
BULLARD: "IF YOU DO QE2 IN A CONTROLLED WAY A DISCIPLINED WAY THAT IS ONE WAY TO ARREST THIS INFLATION TREND AND MAKE SURE YOU GET INFLATION BACK TOWARDS TARGET AND MAKE SURE WE DON'T ENTER INTO THE KIND OF QUAGMIRE THAT JAPAN GOT INTO TOVER THE LAST 15 YEARS"
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BULLARD ON POLICY
BULLARD: "YOU ALWAYS HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND, AND YOU GUYS KNOW AS WELL AS I DO, HOW MUCH UNCERTAINTY THERE REALLY IS WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT WHERE THE ECONOMY IS 6 MONTHS FROM NOW, THESE SHOCKS ARE VERY LARGE THE SITUATION HAS CHANGED DRAMATICALLY IT IS A GLOBAL ECONOMY AND SO THERE IS MANY THINGS THAT CAN HAPPEN YOU DON'T WANT TO LOCK YOURSELF INTO A POLICY THAT YOU MAY NOT LIKE 6 MONTHS FROM NOW."
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BULLARD ON 2011
BULLARD: "YOU COULD TAKE THE VIEW THAT 2011 WILL IMPROVE IT HAS BEEN A SOFT PATCH IN THE ECONOMY BUT 2011 WILL BE STRONGER RECOVERY WILL LOOK BETTER, UNEMPLOYMENT WILL START TICKING DOWN AND INFLATION WILL START COMING BACK TO TARGET WITHOUT TOO MUCH EFFORT ON THE FED'S PART"
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BULLARD ON TAKING ACTION
BULLARD: "I DON'T THINK YOU CAN JUST SAY, 'GEE WE HAVE DONE ALL WE CAN AND WE DONT HAVE TO REACT TO WHAT HAPPENS IN THE ECONOMY' IF THE SITUATION CALLS FOR IT WE WILL HAVE TO TAKE ACTION."
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BULLARD ON DODD FRANK
BULLARD: "I WAS JUST AT A BRIEFING ABOUT THE IMPLEMENTATION OF DODD FRANK FROM THE FEDERAL RESERVES PROSPECTIVE WE HAVE SIGNED AN EXECUTIVE ESPECIALLY TO THIS TASK AND HE SAYS THAT IF I HAVE IT RIGHT 250 WORK STREAMS JUST TO ACCOMPLISH EVERYTHING THAT IS DELINEATED IN THE ACT."
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BULLARD ON BERNANKE
BULLARD: I THINK THE CLEAR SIGNAL ALWAYS COMES FROM THE CHAIRMAN AND HE IS VERY CAREFUL TO SAY WE WILL DO THIS IN A DELIBERATIVE FASHION AND WE WILL MOVE FORWARD AS WE GET ALL OF THE DATA I THOUGHT THE CHAIRMAN DID A GREAT JOB IN JACKSON HOLE OF SAYING YOU HAVE GOT TO LOOK AT BOTH SIDES HERE AND YOU HAVE GOT TO LOOK AT THE PLUS AND MINUS OF TAKING FURTHER ACTION."
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BULLARD ON TAX CUTS
BULLARD: "YOU DONT WANT TO LET TAXES GO UP WHEN YOU ARE TRYING TO GET THE RECOVERY GOING SO YOU HAVE TO HAVE SOME KIND OF PLAN TO GET AROUND THAT ."
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BULLARD ON QUANTITATIVE EASING
BULLARD: "WE KNOW THAT AFTER A FINANCIAL CRISIS IT TAKES A LONG TIME TO RECOVER AND SO THAT IS WHAT IS HAPPENING JUST LOOKING AT THESE NUMBERS ALONE I DON'T THINK IS ENOUGH TO SAY THAT THE CASE IS A SLAM DUNK FOR ADDITIONAL QUANTITATIVE EASING."
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BULLARD ON SMALL MOVES
BULLARD: "THE WAY I WOULD DO IT IS, SMALL AMOUNTS AND THEN MAKE A DECISION AT THE NEXT MEETING AND THAT WILL SET UP EXPECTATIONS ABOUT A PATH BUT THEN IF THE ECONOMY IMPROVES AND THINGS START TO GO BETTER THAN YOU CAN SLOW DOWN OR STOP OR EVEN IF THINGS REALLY PERK UP YOU CAN START TO SELL OFF AND GET THE BALANCE SHEET BACK TO NORMAL I THINK THIS IS THE LOGICAL WAY TO RUN POLICY."
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BULLARD ON CENTRAL BANKS
BULLARD: "I AM NOT A BIG FAN OF TRYING TO COORDINATE ACROSS CENTRAL BANKS, THEN YOU GET THE THING WHERE ONE CENTRAL BANK CALLS THE OTHER CENTRAL BANK AND SAYS I THINK YOU SHOULD DO SUCH AND SUCH THAT DOESN'T MAKE ANY SENSE, EACH COMMITTEE HAS TO MAKE A DECISION THAT IS RIGHT FOR THEIR COUNTRY."
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